The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

Labor gains in three further polls; Trump’s ratings recover slightly

Three further federal polls have been released since Monday’s article, for a total of five polls since Sunday.

The Conversation · Jul 1

"Why Can't California Count?"

Eli McKown-Dawson (Silver Bulletin) writes (introduced by Nate Silver): California is notoriously slow at counting its ballots. In 2024, it… The post "Why Can't California Count?" appeared first on Reason.com.

Reason · Jun 7

Spain and France headline the 2026 World Cup race as England and Argentina complete the favorites' quartet

The 2026 World Cup begins on June 11 with the tightest field at the top in recent memory. Three independent sources —the betting markets, artificial intelligence and FIFA's official ladder— paint, for the first time in years, the same map of power. And on that map, four flags share almost…

Latin Times · Jun 6

Democrats Surge to 61% Chance of Winning 2028 Election as Early Forecast Signals Major Political Shift

Prediction markets indicate a Democratic advantage in the 2028 US presidential race, driven by Trump's low approval ratings and midterm election trends favoring Democrats.

International Business Times UK · Apr 15

'The Magic Is Gone': Trump Got 'USA' Chants at UFC in 2025 — Last Night the Same Miami Crowd Barely Clapped

Donald Trump is met with boos at a UFC event in Miami that critics say reflects slipping approval ratings and a shifting mood even among his usual supporters.

International Business Times UK · Apr 12

‘Abhorrent’: the inside story of the Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

A Guardian investigation reveals how the prediction market can shape news – and how it rules on ‘the truth’

The Guardian - UK · Apr 11

Donald Trump’s US ratings fall to a record low amid Iran war

United States President Donald Trump’s net approval has fallen to a record low on the Iran war, while Democrats had a 25-point swing in their favour in a federal special election. On current polling, Democrats are likely to win the US House but not the Senate at midterm elections this…

The Conversation · Apr 8

Sex Educators Say They're Being Harmed by Age Verification Laws

Plus: Wisconsin governor vetoes porn age-check bill, more charges for penis protester, the Komodo dragon theory of social media, and more...

Reason · Apr 6

New Trump Economy Poll 2026: Majority of Americans Say Economy Worse Than Under Biden

A majority of Americans believe the U.S. economy has deteriorated under President Donald Trump, according to a new national poll that signals growing economic anxiety ahead of key political battles.

Latin Times · Apr 1

Trump Approval Ratings Shows He Has 'Profound Problems,' Top Pollster Warns

President Trump is hitting historic lows in polling, likely driven by the Iran war and high gas prices.

International Business Times · Apr 1