The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

Republicans Spend $500 Million on Midterm Campaigns as Democrats Maintain Leads in Key Senate Races: Report

Republicans have poured nearly $500 million into midterm campaign ads since Labor Day, but Democrats continue to lead or remain tied in key Senate battleground races. Despite outspending Democrats on broadcast advertising, GOP campaigns have gained limited additional airtime and are reallocating funds as key seats become harder to contest.

Latin Times · 19m ago

Trump’s approval is underwater in vast majority of states as Americans have had enough, new survey finds

Latest indication that Trump’s support is eroding due to voter frustrations over cost of living and Iran war

The Independent UK · 22h ago

Republicans continue to slide in US polls, four weeks before midterm elections

Four weeks before the November 3 US midterm elections, Republicans trail Democrats by 9.6 points on the generic ballot in analyst Nate Silver’s midterm forecast model.

The Conversation · Oct 6

Trump’s US ratings drop to new record low as Democrats become clear favourites in both chambers of Congress

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped to a new record low of -23.

The Conversation · Sep 25

The Collapse of Farm Exports Is the Most Underappreciated Story in American Politics

It was a direct result of President Donald Trump's trade war, as even the Department of Agriculture now admits.

Reason · Sep 24

'Bro We Need Your Vote': Matt Gaetz and a Desperate GOP Wrestle With Trump's Unpopularity

The disgraced former congressman is imploring voters not to abandon Republicans over gas prices and war with Iran.

Reason · Sep 23

No cheery time for election pollsters in run-up to US midterms

Pollsters approach this year’s midterm elections dogged by high-profile misfires in recent elections while facing challenges from brash rivals intent on reshaping the landscape of political forecasts.

The Conversation · Sep 22

Tucker Carlson backs Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, Slams Republican Mike Rogers: ‘Unfit to Serve’

Carlson says El-Sayed is "obviously right."

We Got This Covered · Sep 15

Democrats’ chances of gaining control of Congress at US midterms depend on Iran war

In Nate Silver’s forecast model, Democrats are more likely than not to gain control of the US federal Senate at November 3 midterm elections, and strongly favoured to gain control of the House of Representatives. Donald Trump’s net approval is close to -20.

The Conversation · Sep 14

One of X’s most notorious ragebaiters explains how the outrage business earned him $80,000

A typical month posting for Lefkowitz has paid between $3,000 and $10,000 from X.

Fortune · Sep 13