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The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

What to expect when you’re not expecting a clear Senate winner

ANALYSIS — Twenty months down and less than four months to go, you’d think there would be more clarity in the fight for the Senate. But Republicans only have a narrow advantage and, if history is a guide, control of the chamber will likely remain up for grabs all the…

Roll Call

Trump baselessly claims he has a 59 percent approval rating despite no poll backing up his claim

The 80-year-old leader also claimed prices were ‘coming down,’ even though government inflation numbers show otherwise

The Independent UK

Labor gains in three further polls; Trump’s ratings recover slightly

Three further federal polls have been released since Monday’s article, for a total of five polls since Sunday.

The Conversation

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"Why Can't California Count?"

Eli McKown-Dawson (Silver Bulletin) writes (introduced by Nate Silver): California is notoriously slow at counting its ballots. In 2024, it… The post "Why Can't California Count?" appeared first on Reason.com.

Reason

Spain and France headline the 2026 World Cup race as England and Argentina complete the favorites' quartet

The 2026 World Cup begins on June 11 with the tightest field at the top in recent memory. Three independent sources —the betting markets, artificial intelligence and FIFA's official ladder— paint, for the first time in years, the same map of power. And on that map, four flags share almost…

Latin Times

Most Americans Don't Believe Trump Has a Plan To End The War In Iran, Poll Shows

A new poll shows that most Americans don't believe that President Trump has a plan for the Iran war or that he will achieve his goals.

International Business Times

Trump’s ratings slide further, but gerrymanders will help Republicans at midterm elections

US President Donald Trump’s ratings have slid further to a new record low. But two recent court decisions will assist Republicans in using gerrymandering to avoid losing their majority in the House of Representatives.

The Conversation

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Trump’s US ratings are near a record low after dropping further last week

US President Donald Trump’s net approval is near a record low after a further dip, despite a surging US stock market. In Australia, there are federal Essential and Morgan polls and a Queensland Resolve poll.

The Conversation

Polymarket in fundraising talks that could value the prediction platform at $15bn

Bets placed on Middle East conflict has led to US firm experiencing big increase in volume

The Guardian - UK

Democrats Surge to 61% Chance of Winning 2028 Election as Early Forecast Signals Major Political Shift

Prediction markets indicate a Democratic advantage in the 2028 US presidential race, driven by Trump's low approval ratings and midterm election trends favoring Democrats.

International Business Times UK

'The Magic Is Gone': Trump Got 'USA' Chants at UFC in 2025 — Last Night the Same Miami Crowd Barely Clapped

Donald Trump is met with boos at a UFC event in Miami that critics say reflects slipping approval ratings and a shifting mood even among his usual supporters.

International Business Times UK

‘Abhorrent’: the inside story of the Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

A Guardian investigation reveals how the prediction market can shape news – and how it rules on ‘the truth’

The Guardian - UK

Donald Trump’s US ratings fall to a record low amid Iran war

United States President Donald Trump’s net approval has fallen to a record low on the Iran war, while Democrats had a 25-point swing in their favour in a federal special election. On current polling, Democrats are likely to win the US House but not the Senate at midterm elections this…

The Conversation

Sex Educators Say They're Being Harmed by Age Verification Laws

Plus: Wisconsin governor vetoes porn age-check bill, more charges for penis protester, the Komodo dragon theory of social media, and more...

Reason

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Latin Times

New Trump Economy Poll 2026: Majority of Americans Say Economy Worse Than Under Biden

A majority of Americans believe the U.S. economy has deteriorated under President Donald Trump, according to a new national poll that signals growing economic anxiety ahead of key political battles.

International Business Times

Trump Approval Ratings Shows He Has 'Profound Problems,' Top Pollster Warns

President Trump is hitting historic lows in polling, likely driven by the Iran war and high gas prices.

The Independent UK

Greg Gutfeld denies Trump is a narcissist and claims he never worries about his poll numbers

Fox News host leaves colleague aghast by insisting President Donald Trump is never upset by adverse approval ratings, despite his lashing out over precisely that issue on their show last week

Fortune

Markets cheer as Trump threatens to abandon the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the oil market in crisis

The White House is signaling that it’s ready to leave the strait in allies’ hands: “The USA won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.”

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The Independent UK

Trump suffers approval rating slump amid Iran war and spike in gas prices

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Trump’s approval rating dips to new second-term low as top pollster warns of ‘profound problems’ emerging with his base

The president now has less support than he did after he shocked the world economy with tariffs last year

The Conversation

Although Anthony Albanese’s ratings are down in three new federal polls, Labor has maintained a comfortable lead, with the combined vote for the Coalition and One Nation at 46–47% (steady in Newspoll, down one in Redbridge and down three in Fox & Hedgehog).

The Independent UK

Trump’s domestic support is disappearing - These three charts show just how quickly

Latest findings on gas prices, President Donald Trump’s popularity and public attitude to Iran war make for grim reading for embattled conservatives looking ahead to November’s midterms

The Conversation

Polls show federal Labor losing support; One Nation looking strong in Farrer seat poll

It’s over two weeks since the United States and Israel began their war on Iran. In the federal Resolve and Morgan polls, Labor has lost support to the Greens and Others, although YouGov has Labor’s vote up one point. Left-wing voters would like Anthony Albanese to oppose the war.

Axios

Behind the Curtain: Trump's power play

The president has set out to unilaterally impose his will on every vector of American power.

Reason

Support for Republicans Is Tanking. But Why Are Democrats Hated Just as Much?

Trump's second term is wrecking the Grand Old Party—and Democrats' refusal to own up to Biden's failure is killing the party of Jefferson and Obama.

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