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The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

Polymarket in fundraising talks that could value the prediction platform at $15bn

Bets placed on Middle East conflict has led to US firm experiencing big increase in volume

The Guardian - UK

Democrats Surge to 61% Chance of Winning 2028 Election as Early Forecast Signals Major Political Shift

Prediction markets indicate a Democratic advantage in the 2028 US presidential race, driven by Trump's low approval ratings and midterm election trends favoring Democrats.

International Business Times UK

'The Magic Is Gone': Trump Got 'USA' Chants at UFC in 2025 — Last Night the Same Miami Crowd Barely Clapped

Donald Trump is met with boos at a UFC event in Miami that critics say reflects slipping approval ratings and a shifting mood even among his usual supporters.

International Business Times UK

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‘Abhorrent’: the inside story of the Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

A Guardian investigation reveals how the prediction market can shape news – and how it rules on ‘the truth’

The Guardian - UK

Donald Trump’s US ratings fall to a record low amid Iran war

United States President Donald Trump’s net approval has fallen to a record low on the Iran war, while Democrats had a 25-point swing in their favour in a federal special election. On current polling, Democrats are likely to win the US House but not the Senate at midterm elections this…

The Conversation

Sex Educators Say They're Being Harmed by Age Verification Laws

Plus: Wisconsin governor vetoes porn age-check bill, more charges for penis protester, the Komodo dragon theory of social media, and more...

Reason

New Trump Economy Poll 2026: Majority of Americans Say Economy Worse Than Under Biden

A majority of Americans believe the U.S. economy has deteriorated under President Donald Trump, according to a new national poll that signals growing economic anxiety ahead of key political battles.

Latin Times

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Trump Approval Ratings Shows He Has 'Profound Problems,' Top Pollster Warns

President Trump is hitting historic lows in polling, likely driven by the Iran war and high gas prices.

International Business Times

Greg Gutfeld denies Trump is a narcissist and claims he never worries about his poll numbers

Fox News host leaves colleague aghast by insisting President Donald Trump is never upset by adverse approval ratings, despite his lashing out over precisely that issue on their show last week

The Independent UK

Markets cheer as Trump threatens to abandon the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the oil market in crisis

The White House is signaling that it’s ready to leave the strait in allies’ hands: “The USA won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us.”

Fortune

Trump suffers approval rating slump amid Iran war and spike in gas prices

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Trump’s approval rating dips to new second-term low as top pollster warns of ‘profound problems’ emerging with his base

The president now has less support than he did after he shocked the world economy with tariffs last year

The Independent UK

Trump’s unpopularity shields Labor in Newspoll and other polls despite fuel crisis

Although Anthony Albanese’s ratings are down in three new federal polls, Labor has maintained a comfortable lead, with the combined vote for the Coalition and One Nation at 46–47% (steady in Newspoll, down one in Redbridge and down three in Fox & Hedgehog).

The Conversation

Trump’s domestic support is disappearing - These three charts show just how quickly

Latest findings on gas prices, President Donald Trump’s popularity and public attitude to Iran war make for grim reading for embattled conservatives looking ahead to November’s midterms

The Independent UK

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The Conversation

Polls show federal Labor losing support; One Nation looking strong in Farrer seat poll

It’s over two weeks since the United States and Israel began their war on Iran. In the federal Resolve and Morgan polls, Labor has lost support to the Greens and Others, although YouGov has Labor’s vote up one point. Left-wing voters would like Anthony Albanese to oppose the war.

Axios

Behind the Curtain: Trump's power play

The president has set out to unilaterally impose his will on every vector of American power.

Reason

Support for Republicans Is Tanking. But Why Are Democrats Hated Just as Much?

Trump's second term is wrecking the Grand Old Party—and Democrats' refusal to own up to Biden's failure is killing the party of Jefferson and Obama.

The Independent UK

Trump demands his name be put on Penn Station and Dulles airport in exchange for federal funding: report

Chuck Schumer declined to put the president’s name on New York’s Penn Station, saying he did not have the authority

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news in one place.

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The Guardian - US

Is Jeff Bezos going to destroy the Washington Post? It sure looks like it

He has the chance to be the steward of a national treasure, but he’s blowing it

The Independent UK

11 people arrested after performance outside along the Vegas strip leads to ‘unruly’ mob

One police officer was struck by an unidentified projectile during the skirmish which raged outside of a strip club

The Conversation

Who’s going to the ballot box this year? Here’s the election state of play

This article covers the March South Australian state election and November Victorian state election. The United States will hold midterm elections in November, giving Democrats an opportunity to take control of Congress.

The Independent UK

Las Vegas’ struggling tourism industry posts another worrying stat during what should have been city’s busiest month of the year

‘I think it’s clear that value has been a concern on the part of some of our customers,’ Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority CEO Steve Hill said. ‘We’re aware of that. The resorts are aware of that.’

Roll Call

It’s beginning to look a lot like … a traditional midterm election - Roll Call

In spite of President Donald Trump’s reputation as a political savant, 2026 is beginning to look a lot like a traditional midterm election.

The Conversation

Trump’s ratings recover a little after slump; Australian Labor retains large poll leads

Donald Trump’s net approval is up a little after a slump to a term low on November 23, as Republicans hold a federal seat at a special election. In Australia, Labor continues to hold large leads in federal polls, but received just 8.3% at the Hinchinbrook Queensland state byelection.

Axios

Behind the Curtain: Republicans see dire 2026 warning signs in these 5 polls

Everywhere Republicans look, they see big political trouble.

1 2 3 4 5

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