In Nate Silver’s forecast model, Democrats are more likely than not to gain control of the US federal Senate at November 3 midterm elections, and strongly favoured to gain control of the House of Representatives. Donald Trump’s net approval is close to -20.
If disruption caused by the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House and the Senate, possibly with huge losses.
