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The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

Could third-party voters spoil the 2024 election?

Jill Stein and Cornel West could peel vital votes away from Kamala Harris on Tuesday – but Robert F Kennedy Jr could do the same to Donald Trump

The Independent UK

Iowa shows Trump underestimated women

“If Trump had ‘momentum’ in October, it has now petered out in November," says election forecaster Nate Silver

Salon

Top polling guru predicts race between Trump and Harris will be a ‘toss-up’

‘We will very likely go into Tuesday night with the race being truly a toss-up,’ Nate Silver writes

The Independent UK

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It's Almost Over

Plus: New York's 17th district, Nevada's senate race, bootstrapping dating via the NYC marathon, and more...

Reason

US presidential election remains a toss-up, and a guide to US election day in Australia

The United States presidential election will be held Tuesday, with results coming in from Wednesday morning AEDT. I have a guide to Wednesday below that includes when polls in the key states close and other information.

The Conversation

Poll with oracle-like status delivers stunning warning for Trump and could signal Harris surge in Midwest

"It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming. She has clearly leaped into a leading position."

Fortune

Trump aides confident in his chances – but admit results are anyone’s guess

Some polls offer promising outlook for Trump in swing states and reveal most believe US is on the wrong track

The Guardian - US

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Harris grabs unexpected last-minute lead over Trump in Iowa poll

In shocking result that could reshape the race, ex-president falls three points behind in a state he won in 2016 and 2020

The Guardian - US

Watch: Donald Trump campaigns in Warren, Michigan

Watch as Donald Trump campaigned in Warren, Michigan on Friday (1 November).

The Independent UK

Watch: Kamala Harris campaigns in Janesville, Wisconsin

Watch again as Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned in Janesville, Wisconsin on Friday (1 November).

The Independent UK

Republicans preparing to reject US election result if Trump loses, warn strategists

Polling experts point to ‘fake polls’ exaggerating his support, with baseless lawsuits alleging fraud already filed

The Guardian - UK

Trump’s slight lead in Pennsylvania could give him Electoral College win; Biden a drag on Harris

The United States presidential election will be held next Tuesday, with results coming in Wednesday AEDT. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.5, a slight gain for Trump since Monday, when Harris led by 48.6–47.4. Harris’ national lead peaked on…

The Conversation

Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say

Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.

Fortune

Biden says ‘garbage’ remark was aimed at comedian, not Trump supporters

Edited video clip of president’s remarks suggests he insulted Trump backers, but his wording is unclear

The Guardian - US

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The Guardian - UK

Tuesday briefing: Some Democrats are grimly convinced that Trump is going to win. What does the evidence show?

In today’s newsletter: The polls are neck and neck. So why are some Kamala Harris supporters convinced the Republicans have the election in the bag?

Fortune

Exclusive: Prediction market Kalshi launches crypto deposits as Trump maintains big lead on betting sites

Kalshi still lags behind Polymarket, the offshore leader among electoral betting markets.

Salon

Trump's MSG scandal: Is it a death blow?

Dissing Puerto Ricans in the final days of the campaign could be a death blow

The Conversation

US presidential election remains very close; late counting in Australian elections

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.4, a gain for Trump since last Wednesday, when Harris led by 48.8–47.2. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led…

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Al Jazeera

Trump vows to oust special counsel, as he, Harris race through swing states

Trump will rally Thursday evening in Arizona and Nevada; Harris to appear with Obama, Springsteen in Georgia.

Salon

Nate Silver: "Gut" says Trump will win

Though Silver's forecast favors Trump's chances the most, nearly all posters show a rightward shift

Reason

Through the Finish Line

Plus: Puberty blockers study suppressed by doctors, organ donation on the rise, and more...

Fortune

Kalshi points to a Trump win. Its 28-year-old CEO says the betting market is more reliable than polling

Meet the man trying to turn electoral betting into a $1 trillion market.

The Conversation

LNP lead reduced as Queensland election approaches; US election remains very close

The Queensland state election is this Saturday, with polls closing at 7pm AEDT. There are 93 single-member seats, with Queensland having no upper house. At the 2020 election, Labor won 52 of the 93 seats, the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34 and all others seven. Labor won the two-party statewide…

Reason

End Times

Plus: Unexpected shrooming, Trump makes french fries, and more...

The Conversation

Labor retains office at ACT election; US presidential election remains on a knife’s edge

The Labor Party has won a seventh consecutive ACT election.

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