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The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

LNP lead reduced as Queensland election approaches; US election remains very close

The Queensland state election is this Saturday, with polls closing at 7pm AEDT. There are 93 single-member seats, with Queensland having no upper house. At the 2020 election, Labor won 52 of the 93 seats, the Liberal National Party (LNP) 34 and all others seven. Labor won the two-party statewide…

The Conversation

End Times

Plus: Unexpected shrooming, Trump makes french fries, and more...

Reason

Labor retains office at ACT election; US presidential election remains on a knife’s edge

The Labor Party has won a seventh consecutive ACT election.

The Conversation

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Kamala Harris' Chances of Sweeping the Swing States With 3 Weeks Left to Election Day

The vice president is ahead in four battleground states. However, all margins are extremely slim and Trump seems to be gaining ground

Latin Times

Donald Trump's Chances of Sweeping the Swing States With 3 Weeks Left to Election Day

The former president is ahead in three of the seven largest swing states. However, all margins are extremely slim and Trump seems to be gaining ground

Latin Times

Boots on the Ground

Plus: California tries to punish Musk, China's economic recovery, and more...

Reason

Kamala Harris dips in key states, making US election contest a toss-up

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.5, a slight gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led by 49.3–46.2.

The Conversation

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2024 US presidential election: can we believe the polls?

Nationwide polls are often of limited relevance, considering the unique structure of the US electoral system. To gain a better understanding of the upcoming presidential election, we need to focus on surveys conducted in the pivotal battlegrounds – the so-called swing states. After the missteps in previous elections, it’s hard…

The Conversation

Can Latinos Stomach Harris?

Plus: Possible deceptive editing from CBS, public transit discourse, Trump is not literally Hitler, and more...

Reason

Trump pitches tax write-off for auto loans in Detroit speech - Roll Call

Former President Trump proposed making interest on car loans tax-deductible Thursday in the latest of a series of tax cuts he has promised.

Roll Call

Floridaposting

Plus: Kamala's Florida possibility, Columbia's Hamas sympathizers, and more...

Reason

Kamala Harris maintains narrow lead in key states in US presidential race

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.2, a slight gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led Trump by 49.3–46.0.

The Conversation

RFK Jr’s endorsement of Trump moved the needle more than Taylor Swift backing Harris, top pollster says

Veteran election forecaster Nate Silver described RFK Jr’s endorsement as the ‘most important’ of the race so far

The Independent UK

‘Show me the money’: how Eric Adams made it to the top – and fell back down

The New York mayor was hailed as the Democrats’ future. But the ex-Republican cop has a history of scandals

The Guardian - US

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Roll Call

Hurricane relief funds stable for now, officials say - Roll Call

Fears of an immediate cash crunch at FEMA that could necessitate congressional action before the elections receded on Tuesday.

Roll Call

Biden floats recess action on Helene supplemental - Roll Call

President Joe Biden said he expects to request an emergency spending package to finance the recovery efforts from Hurricane Helene.

The Conversation

Kamala Harris the slight favourite to win US election as she narrowly leads in key states

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.0 – a slight widening of the competition since last Monday, when Harris led Trump by 49.2–46.2.

Reason

More Vance Than Anyone Could Ever Need

Plus: Long live Eric Adams, Electoral College bias, and more...

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Reason

Joe Biden's Fact-Check-Free Interview on The View

His polling was not "always in range" of beating Donald Trump.

The Conversation

Harris’ post-debate gains sustained in US polls, but Republicans likely to gain Senate control

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.2–46.2. In my previous US politics article last Wednesday, Harris led Trump by 48.9–46.0.

The Independent UK

Leading pollster warns Americans ‘should make contingency plans’ ahead of possible Trump win

Outcome of 2024 White House race is still a ‘toss-up’, Nate Silver says

The Guardian - UK

‘People should be making their contingency plans, like, right away’: America’s leading forecaster on the chances of a Trump win

Nate Silver’s election model is once again being pored over by millions of anxious voters. The gambler turned statistician talks about the race for White House, the risk-takers redefining our culture, and the probability of God

The Conversation

Harris gains in post-debate US national polls, but will her gains be sustained?

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.9–46.0. In my previous US politics article on September 9, Harris led Trump by 48.7–46.2.

Sports Illustrated

NFL Power Rankings: Straddling the Line Between Seeing and Believing

Two games aren’t enough to completely dispose of preseason expectations, but it’s enough to reexamine what we thought we knew.

Salon

Election forecasters explain Trump odds

Election prediction models are not like polls — and Silver's Trump odds are not all that different from others

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