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The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

Kamala Harris Can't Stick to Her Story

Plus: Dutch housing policy makes literally no sense, Israel-Palestine gets litigated on campus (again), and more...

Reason

Trump lobs same insults at Harris and Walz in Pennsylvania town hall

Ex-president repeats false claims to Sean Hannity of asylum seekers and crime and says: ‘We’re going to heal our world’

The Guardian - US

A Very Tight Race

Plus: J.D. Vance shouldn't be near podcasts, Trump takes on marijuana laws, and more...

Reason

From analysis to the latest developments in health,
read the most diverse news in one place.

Harris’ win probability falls slightly after Democratic convention and Kennedy withdrawal

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–45.0. In my previous US politics article last Sunday, Harris led Trump by 48.8–44.8.

The Conversation

Kyla Scanlon: What's Actually Wrong With the Economy?

Economist and author Kyla Scanlon discusses inflation, economic narratives, and the housing market.

Reason

Harris gains in US polls during Democratic convention; Labor thumped in NT election

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–44.8. In my previous US politics article last Monday, Harris led Trump by 47.1–44.6.

The Conversation

In election race, prediction markets are challenging traditional polling

Before scientific polling, newspapers relied on betting markets to predict the outcome of elections, often with remarkable accuracy.

Fortune

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Kamala Harris’ polls surge stalls ahead of Democratic National Convention

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 47.1–44.6% with 4.2% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In my previous US politics article last Wednesday, Harris led Trump by 46.8–43.7%.

The Conversation

Both presidential campaigns descend on critical swing state of Pennsylvania

Trump to hold rally in north-east while Harris tours through west of what election forecaster calls ‘tipping point’ state

The Guardian - US

Polls Show VP Harris Gaining Ground In Swing States

Ohio Sen. JD Vance discusses Trump's campaign strategy and the evolving dynamics between Trump and Harris. Polls show Harris leading in some swing states, ...

Top News

Kamala Wants Price Controls

Plus: East River swimming, Nord Stream update, Palmer Luckey, and more...

Reason

Megyn Kelly attributes Trump ‘rambling’ in Elon Musk interview to his age

Conservative media personality has been critical of the former president in the past – while he has repeatedly insulted her

The Independent UK

Nate Silver: Harris is now beating Trump

"We've seen momentum for Harris with her rising consistently to about a 2.5% lead in national polls," Silver said

Salon

Harris’ lead over Trump continues to increase in US national and swing state polls

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 46.8–43.7 with 3.9% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In my previous US politics article on August 5, Harris led Trump by 45.5–44.1.

The Conversation

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news in one place.

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Fortune

Nate Silver charts the course of risk-taking, from Sam Bankman-Fried to Sam Altman

For Nate Silver poker, Sam Bankman-Fried, and the future of AI are all connected by one thing—risk-taking.

Reason

Nate Silver: How Likely Is a Kamala Harris Presidency?

Statistician Nate Silver will join Just Asking Questions at 12:30 p.m. ET this Thursday to talk about the state of the Democratic Party.

The Guardian - UK

On the Edge by Nate Silver review – the art of risk-taking

From card sharps to crypto traders, a statistician asks what we can learn from the people prepared to gamble everything

The Guardian - US

Polls show Kamala Harris moving ahead of Donald Trump in 2024 US election

Recent national head-to-head polls favor Harris, but polls in battleground states present a more mixed picture

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news in one place.

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One news app.

The Conversation

Kamala Harris edges ahead of Donald Trump in national polls for US election

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. Election analyst Nate Silver’s national poll aggregate has Democratic nominee and current vice president Kamala Harris leading Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump by 45.5–44.1%, with 5.0% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Fortune

Who is Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan? The 26-year-old’s crypto betting site is taking U.S. politics by storm

Polymarket has hired polling superstar Nate Silver and is now a must-read for politicos. But who is behind it, and what are its business plans?

Top News

Nate Silver's Election Model Predicts Harris As Modest Underdog

Statistician Nate Silver predicts Kamala Harris as popular vote favorite but Electoral College underdog against Trump.

Reason

BYEden

Plus: Kamala Harris enters the race, unlicensed pot shop crackdowns, Ozempic dupes, and more...

Reason

An Intervention for Joe Biden

Plus: Vance the enigma, V.C. goes MAGA, and more...

The Guardian - US

Biden faces renewed pressure to step aside as Democrats’ rift widens

Tensions amid party members rise as Biden tests positive for Covid and will be in self-isolation in Delaware

Reason

Vivek's Vision

Plus: Iranian Trump plot, Newsom's stand against parental rights, Biden tries SCOTUS term limits, and more...

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