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The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

Will Bunch: The NYT should tell readers whether it helped crooked FBI agents get Trump elected in 2016

It was arguably the most consequential "October Surprise" in the history of American presidential elections. In the waning days of the 2016 race, with polls showing Hillary Clinton clinging to a lead over Donald Trump, two last-minute stories broke that rekindled on-the-fence voters' ethical doubts about Democrat Clinton and quashed…

The Philadelphia Inquirer

Some midterm polls were on-target – but finding which pollsters and poll aggregators to believe can be challenging

Pollsters indulged in breezy self-congratulation in the aftermath of the 2022 midterm elections. Pre-election polls, they declared, did well overall in signaling outcomes of high-profile U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.

The Conversation

Hope wafting in from Brazil

Defeat of election denying Jair Bolsonaro reminds us that madness comes ... and goes.

Chicago Sun-Times

From analysis to the latest developments in health,
read the most diverse news in one place.

This Election Day, Listen to the Betting Market Instead of Pundit Predictions

Over time, betting has been a better predictor than polls, pundits, statistical models, and everything else.

Reason

Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election

The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in 2020, and hold the Senate on a 50-50 tie with…

The Conversation

Commentary: Democrats’ midterm chances are better partly because of one person: Ruth Bader Ginsburg

What a difference six months make. Earlier this year, it was generally conceded that Republicans would sweep to victories in the midterm elections, giving them control of the House and Senate.

Chicago Tribune

US Democrats' gains stall six weeks before midterm elections; UK Labour seizes huge lead after budget

The United States midterm elections will be held in six weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in 2020, and hold the Senate on a 50-50 tie with Vice…

The Conversation

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Will any Republican ever admit defeat?

GOP's latest campaign tactic is also a fundraising grift: Never concede defeat to anyone, even another Republican

Salon

The Republican Party is having an identity crisis

WASHINGTON — The GOP is now acting like a party in search of itself with less than three months before U.S. elections that once favored Republicans to retake both chambers of Congress and set them up for 2024.

Tribune News Service

Top ten programs that should join the Big Ten in further expansion according to FiveThirtyEight

Here are the top ten schools FiveThirtyEight says are the best fit for the Big Ten when it comes to athletic performance.

USA Today Sports Media Group

The Student Loan Forgiveness Fiasco

Plus: Spider study sheds light on how misinformation spreads, Airbnb regulation ruled unconstitutional, and more...

Reason

How the US Supreme Court has become right-wing, and do recent decisions give Democrats hope at the midterms?

The US Supreme Court’s annual term usually finishes at the end of June, so late June is when the most important decisions are likely to be announced.

The Conversation

Press Coverage on the Assassination Attempt of Justice Kavanaugh

The New York Times lists sixteen news stories above the attempted murder of a Justice.

Reason

Let’s face it – we’re addicted to polls, even if they’ve got things so wrong in the past

CAMPAIGN DIARY: Dennis Atkins lays out a guide to what the polls have told us and what we might learn in the last hours of this exhausting campaign.

The New Daily

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Reason

Elon Musk's Takeover Will Not Destroy Twitter or Democracy

"I hope that even my worst critics remain on Twitter, because that is what free speech means," said Musk.

Daily Record

Supercomputer recalculates Celtic and Rangers title prediction with 'Helicopter' thrill ride incoming

Nate Silver's stats website had had the Ibrox side as favourites but the red-hot form in Glasgow's east end has turned the tables.

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