Presidential elections elevate new faces to the national stage. That includes the candidates, of course, but also figures like CNN’s John King or stats guru Nate Silver who have taken on a special oracle status each election. In 2024, the latest to join their ranks is Shayne Coplan, a shaggy-haired 26-year-old whose site Polymarket has become a fixture of political news and whose boosters claim it offers the most accurate signal of the election’s outcome.
Coplan’s site—which is a prediction market that invites users to bet money on a given outcome—foreshadowed major developments in the election. Those include Polymarket predicting President Joe Biden dropping out and Donald Trump selecting JD Vance as his running mate. On election night, the site received the ultimate vindication when, after weeks of signaling a Trump victory, the Republican candidate appeared headed for victory.
