The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

This Election Day, Listen to the Betting Market Instead of Pundit Predictions

Over time, betting has been a better predictor than polls, pundits, statistical models, and everything else.

Reason · Oct 26, 2022

Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election

The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in 2020, and hold the Senate on a 50-50 tie with…

The Conversation · Oct 20, 2022

Commentary: Democrats’ midterm chances are better partly because of one person: Ruth Bader Ginsburg

What a difference six months make. Earlier this year, it was generally conceded that Republicans would sweep to victories in the midterm elections, giving them control of the House and Senate.

Chicago Tribune · Oct 5, 2022

The Student Loan Forgiveness Fiasco

Plus: Spider study sheds light on how misinformation spreads, Airbnb regulation ruled unconstitutional, and more...

Reason · Aug 25, 2022

How the US Supreme Court has become right-wing, and do recent decisions give Democrats hope at the midterms?

The US Supreme Court’s annual term usually finishes at the end of June, so late June is when the most important decisions are likely to be announced.

The Conversation · Jul 5, 2022

Press Coverage on the Assassination Attempt of Justice Kavanaugh

The New York Times lists sixteen news stories above the attempted murder of a Justice.

Reason · Jun 8, 2022

Let’s face it – we’re addicted to polls, even if they’ve got things so wrong in the past

CAMPAIGN DIARY: Dennis Atkins lays out a guide to what the polls have told us and what we might learn in the last hours of this exhausting campaign.

The New Daily · May 20, 2022

Elon Musk's Takeover Will Not Destroy Twitter or Democracy

"I hope that even my worst critics remain on Twitter, because that is what free speech means," said Musk.

Reason · Apr 26, 2022

Supercomputer recalculates Celtic and Rangers title prediction with 'Helicopter' thrill ride incoming

Nate Silver's stats website had had the Ibrox side as favourites but the red-hot form in Glasgow's east end has turned the tables.

Daily Record · Feb 11, 2022