By now, you’ve probably gone into the depths — and maybe even the abyss — looking at forecasts and predictions of which athletic programs could join the Big Ten if it decides to expand further. Given the comments made recently by conference commissioner Kevin Warren, it’s not unrealistic to think more teams that will get added in the future.
Since the shocking news of UCLA and USC joining the Big Ten hit the news cycle while I was on a cruise ship trying to take a vacation with Mickey Mouse, seemingly everyone has an opinion on what happens next. Heck, we even got into the action once I got my sea legs back on dry land.
However, it’s one thing to eyeball the situation and offer an opinion, it’s another to use analytical data to try and figure it all out.
And that … is why we love FiveThirtyEight. We follow the popular analytics website during the college football season to see which teams have a greater chance of making the College Football Playoff, but now Nate Silver has gotten into the act by crunching the numbers to determine which schools are the best fit for the Big Ten.
The method used has a long explanation that you can check out for yourself, but basically, it’s based on athletic performance, fit, and market in both football and basketball among 38 Power Five schools that are taken into account. Point ratings are given for most recent success as well as total national titles in both sports, with it weighted more heavily toward football.
The results might be a little surprising in some cases, while others are the same schools we’ve heard bantered about in the news.
Here is a look at the top 10 best candidates for programs to expand further into the Big Ten in the future courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.
First Up … Tier 3: How Big should the B1G Be?
No. 10 - California
What the FiveThirtyEight Data Says
| Sports Score | “Fit” Score | Market Score | Total Composite Score |
| 44 | 87 | 24 | 52 |
No. 8 (tie) - Stanford
What the FiveThirtyEight Data Says
| Sports Score | “Fit” Score | Market Score | Total Composite Score |
| 59 | 64 | 35 | 53 |
No. 8 - Miami (FL)
What the FiveThirtyEight Data Says
| Sports Score | “Fit” Score | Market Score | Total Composite Score |
| 48 | 40 | 72 | 53 |
No. 7 - Utah
What the FiveThirtyEight Data Says
| Sports Score | “Fit” Score | Market Score | Total Composite Score |
| 50 | 61 | 50 | 54 |
No. 6 - Clemson
What the FiveThirtyEight Data Says
| Sports Score | “Fit” Score | Market Score | Total Composite Score |
| 57 | 44 | 75 | 59 |
NEXT … The ‘No-Brainers”
No. 4 (tie) - Washington
What the FiveThirtyEight Data Says
| Sports Score | “Fit” Score | Market Score | Total Composite Score |
| 49 | 83 | 64 | 65 |
No. 4 - Florida State
What the FiveThirtyEight Data Says
| Sports Score | “Fit” Score | Market Score | Total Composite Score |
| 55 | 58 | 82 | 65 |
No. 3 - Oregon
What the FiveThirtyEight Data Says
| Sports Score | “Fit” Score | Market Score | Total Composite Score |
| 60 | 63 | 77 | 67 |
No. 2 - North Carolina
What the FiveThirtyEight Data Says
| Sports Score | “Fit” Score | Market Score | Total Composite Score |
| 61 | 73 | 71 | 68 |
NEXT … Tier 1: The Slam Dunk
No. 1 - Notre Dame
What the FiveThirtyEight Data Says
| Sports Score | “Fit” Score | Market Score | Total Composite Score |
| 77 | 49 | 93 | 73 |
NEXT … What We Say
In Conclusion: What We Say
What We Say
I love this. I’m a coach in my “other life” and I’ve embraced the new-age analytics of what’s going on inside the numbers of the game, and it makes sense to take into account here. I always say analytics don’t tell the whole story and other things have to go into decision-making, but it does tell a story and you’d be doing a disservice to dismiss data and metrics altogether.
However, one thing I want to make clear with all of these lists is that it is highly improbable the Big Ten will take on a university that is not an AAU member when it comes to academics. If you know anything about the Big Ten, you probably know what that means, and thus I will not bore you with the details here.
However, admitting schools that aren’t members has been a non-starter culturally in the past and will most likely remain so, besides Notre Dame that is. That’s the only exception because of everything else the Irish bring to the table.
For that reason, I think Florida State, Clemson and Miami aren’t realistic options (though it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been surprised). The SEC doesn’t have the same sort of academic preference as the Big Ten and those three schools are probably better fits there if they ever jumped ship from the ACC. Rumors have speculated otherwise, but we’ll just have to see if and when it all plays out.
With that in mind, of course, Notre Dame is the Holy Grail for Ohio State, but beyond that, North Carolina, Oregon and Washington would seem to make the most sense when you look at everything in totality.
But, hey, what do we know? What does anyone really know about all of this besides those on the inside?
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