Statistician Nate Silver recently released his first election model following Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee. According to Silver's analysis on Substack, Harris is currently favored to win the popular vote but is considered a slight underdog to Trump in the Electoral College. This situation raises concerns about a potential repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that impacted the Democrats in the 2000 and 2016 elections.
Silver highlighted that Harris holds a more favorable position compared to President Biden when he was the incumbent challenger. He mentioned that Biden had a 27% chance of defeating Trump before withdrawing from the race. Harris swiftly garnered support from the Democratic Party in the two days following Biden's announcement of ending his 2024 re-election bid and endorsing his vice president.
Silver expressed optimism about Harris's candidacy, stating that she provides Democrats with a competitive edge. He also pointed out the trend of Democrats winning the popular vote in recent elections, with Harris being a slight favorite over Trump in this aspect.
Reflecting on Biden's 2020 victory, Silver noted a significant 'Electoral College-popular vote gap,' where Biden narrowly secured victory in several states despite winning the popular vote. He indicated that this gap remains a challenge for Democrats, with Harris projected to face a slightly wider popular vote-Electoral College gap than Biden.
Nate Silver is renowned for his accurate predictions, having successfully forecasted 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election and President Obama's 2012 win. As Harris emerges as the presumptive presidential nominee for the Democratic Party, she is expected to announce her running mate by Tuesday.
Several prominent politicians, including Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, are among those considered top contenders for Harris's running mate, actively campaigning on her behalf in recent days.
