Election handicapper Nate Silver wrote in The New York Times Wednesday that the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is so tight that the the only responsible forecast is 50-50. But if forced to pick one candidate to win, Silver continued, "my gut says Donald Trump," though he also cautioned that people shouldn't put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — "including mine" — and instead "resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50."
Silver's forecast has been the most favorable to Trump in the closing months of the election. Last week, the Silver Bulletin gave Trump a 64% chance of beating Harris while still giving the Democratic candidate a popular vote victory, drawing criticism from Democrats who say he's giving too much weight to unreliable, partisan GOP polls. Social media users have also criticized his employment at Polymarket, a political betting site that has been bankrolled by right-wing billionaire Peter Thiel.
Other forecasts show a closer race. FiveThirtyEight, the prognosticator Silver founded in 2008 and left earlier this year, gives Harris a 56% chance of winning, while DecisionDeskHQ gave her a 54% chance. The Hill has Trump winning with a 52% chance.
Salon previously reported that, despite the seemingly divergent numbers, most handicappers encourage their readers to think about their numbers probabilistically. A 64% chance of winning might seem like a lot compared to 48%, but it is hardly insurmountable, with all the forecasters are in agreement that "both candidates have a good chance of winning."
Silver, who like many other forecasters also includes editorial decision-making in his model, also noted in his Times piece that either candidate could beat their polling numbers in an age where there are many unknown factors and changing dynamics.
"With polling averages so close, even a small systematic polling error like the one the industry experienced in 2016 or 2020 could produce a comfortable Electoral College victory for Ms. Harris or Mr. Trump," he wrote. "According to my model, there’s about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states."
