Election handicapper Nate Silver wrote in The New York Times Wednesday that the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is so tight that the the only responsible forecast is 50-50. But if forced to pick one candidate to win, Silver continued, "my gut says Donald Trump," though he also cautioned that people shouldn't put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — "including mine" — and instead "resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50."
Silver's forecast has been the most favorable to Trump in the closing months of the election. Last week, the Silver Bulletin gave Trump a 64% chance of beating Harris while still giving the Democratic candidate a popular vote victory, drawing criticism from Democrats who say he's giving too much weight to unreliable, partisan GOP polls. Social media users have also criticized his employment at Polymarket, a political betting site that has been bankrolled by right-wing billionaire Peter Thiel.
