Nationwide polls are often of limited relevance, considering the unique structure of the US electoral system. To gain a better understanding of the upcoming presidential election, we need to focus on surveys conducted in the pivotal battlegrounds – the so-called swing states. After the missteps in previous elections, it’s hard to place too much confidence in these polls, as many rely on unrepresentative samples.
As we head toward the 2024 US presidential election, media large and small frequently fall into the trap of “horse race” journalism. Policy questions are rarely treated in depth, and the emphasis is often on the latest polls. One week they announce Kamala Harris as moving ahead, and the next, Donald Trump still has an edge. But how reliable are these polls?
