With less than three weeks to go before the presidential elections, all eyes are set on the critical swing states that will determine the outcome of the race. And all polling show an extremely tight scenario where the scale will be tipped by a small amount of votes.
Different survey aggregators consider most of them a toss up, with only two (Arizona and Georgia) with a difference higher than one percentage point. NPR's electoral map, for example, currently has Vice President Kamala Harris with 226 electoral votes compared to Donald Trump's 246, both still unable to get to the 270 need to get the White House.
The outlet indicates there are 66 votes completely up for grabs, while the 27 from Arizona and Georgia (11 and 16, respectively) would go to the Republican. Pennsylvania, the largest swing state with 19 electoral votes, shows a small advantage for Harris.
The Democrat is ahead by 0.5 percentage points in NPR's aggregator, making the race a toss-up still. FiveThirtyEight's features a similar scenario, with the vice president leading with 48% of the support compared to Trump's 47.4%.
North Carolina, the next one in terms of electoral votes with 16, is currently going to Trump, although also by less than one percentage point. NPR has the Republican ahead by 0.85 percentage points, while FiveThirtyEight shows a 48.2%-47.3% advantage.
The remaining battleground states are polling as it follows:
Nevada: Harris ahead by 0.35 points in NPR's average, 0.8 in FiveThirtyEight's (47.7% to 46.9%)
Michigan shows a contrasting scenario in the pollsters' averages, although both consider it to be a toss-up: NPR has Trump ahead by 0.05 percentage points while FiveThirtyEight shows Harris ahead by 0.7%.
Harris leads in Wisconsin, according to both averages: by 0.25 percentage points in NPR's and 0.6% in FiveThirtyEight's.
Today's update. It's now literally 50/50.https://t.co/vsGVG18HHI pic.twitter.com/IynflBiMWb
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2024
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver highlighted that Trump's chances of winning have been growing over the past weeks, with both candidates now being practically tied in that area. The latest figures regarding their winning probability, he showed, are practically tied, with Harris holding 50.1% of the chances to Trump's 49.9%.
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