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Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Further US election analysis: Hispanics and young men swung big to Trump

Donald Trump Kamala Harris Hispanic Nate Silver Coalition Labor Joe Biden Nevada Arizona Pennsylvania

Republican Donald Trump won the United States presidential election by 312 electoral votes to 226 for Democrat Kamala Harris. Trump carried the seven key states of Georgia (16 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Arizona (11), Nevada (six), Wisconsin (ten), Michigan (15) and Pennsylvania (19).

Arizona and Nevada have not yet been called for Trump, but he will win them both. Joe Biden had defeated Trump by 306 electoral votes to 232 in 2020. At this election, Trump gained Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. He won all the states he won in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, plus Nevada.

Analyst Nate Silver’s final forecast had given Trump a 20% chance to win all seven key states. The pre-election polls did not have to be very wrong for Trump to do this.

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