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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
World
Robert Tait in Washington

US pollsters taking heat – again – for failing to predict Trump triumph

Donald Trump Kamala Harris United States J Ann Selzer Allan Lichtman Nate Silver Polymarket Iowa Kalshi The New York Times
A chart getting scrunched
‘Compounding the embarrassment, many polling experts predicted a narrow electoral college victory for Kamala Harris.’ Illustration: Bruno Hayward/The Guardian

US pollsters are under fire for the third presidential election running for failing to foresee Donald Trump’s emphatic ballot box triumph that will propel him back to the White House.

Having seriously underestimated Trump’s support in the 2016 and 2020 elections, polling agencies trumpeted a recalibrated methodology for 2024 that was meant to more realistically reflect his standing while restoring their own credibility.

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