Gambling on the outcome of the presidential election became legal in the US at the start of October after decades of prohibition, becoming a new type of pre-election poll. Online prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket accepted billions of dollars in wagers on the outcome, with their users favoring Donald Trump with a 70% chance of beating Kamala Harris, out of sync with mainstream polls. Trump’s camp trumpeted the predictions.
In the UK, election gambling is legal and takes a very different form. Traditional bookmakers and betting firms take players’ wagers and set prices and odds. The bets are not as similar to prediction markets as they are to horse racing. These markets are prone to their own scandals. Kalshi and Polymarket offer an online vision of betting that encompasses a wider range of subjects, algorithmically sets prices and relies on cryptocurrency.
