The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

The United States presidential election will be held next Tuesday, with results coming in Wednesday AEDT. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.5, a slight gain for Trump since Monday, when Harris led by 48.6–47.4. Harris’ national lead peaked on…

Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.

Edited video clip of president’s remarks suggests he insulted Trump backers, but his wording is unclear

In today’s newsletter: The polls are neck and neck. So why are some Kamala Harris supporters convinced the Republicans have the election in the bag?

Kalshi still lags behind Polymarket, the offshore leader among electoral betting markets.

Dissing Puerto Ricans in the final days of the campaign could be a death blow

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.4, a gain for Trump since last Wednesday, when Harris led by 48.8–47.2. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led…

Trump will rally Thursday evening in Arizona and Nevada; Harris to appear with Obama, Springsteen in Georgia.

Though Silver's forecast favors Trump's chances the most, nearly all posters show a rightward shift

Plus: Puberty blockers study suppressed by doctors, organ donation on the rise, and more...

Meet the man trying to turn electoral betting into a $1 trillion market.