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The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

Top Pollster Finds 'Hidden' Signs of a Comeback for Democrats Despite Republican Win, Predicts 'Challenging' Term for Trump

One of the only pollsters to predict the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election somewhat correctly, Nate Silver, has stated that he sees a variety of challenges lying ahead for President-elect Donald Trump, further predicting positive outcomes for the Democratic Party.

Latin Times

Blue-state governors are fighting back

Governors like Newsom, Pritzker and Whitmer won't roll over for the Trump agenda. Can states' rights save us?

Salon

Coalition retains narrow Newspoll lead as Dutton gains; where Democrats may have erred in US election

A national Newspoll, conducted November 4–8 from a sample of 1,261, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in early October. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (up two), 33% Labor (up two), 11% Greens (down one), 5% One Nation (down two) and 11% for all Others…

The Conversation

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Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan says he founded the popular prediction market from his bathroom

“Little did I know Polymarket was going to change the world," the 26-year-old founder said of his makeshift setup.

Fortune

US election results: How did opinion polls undercount Trump voters again?

It’s the third consecutive election in which opinion polls have underestimated Trump’s support.

Al Jazeera

Further US election analysis: Hispanics and young men swung big to Trump

Republican Donald Trump won the United States presidential election by 312 electoral votes to 226 for Democrat Kamala Harris. Trump carried the seven key states of Georgia (16 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Arizona (11), Nevada (six), Wisconsin (ten), Michigan (15) and Pennsylvania (19).

The Conversation

Ann Selzer explains why her very wrong Iowa poll may have helped Trump

Numerous prominent pre-election forecasts missed result as Trump swept to victory

The Independent UK

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Battle of the pollsters: ‘Nostradamus’ bashes rival after both election predictions flopped

Across the board, pollsters failed to predict Trump would win by a comfortable margin

The Independent UK

Did Trump Run an Actually Good Campaign?

Plus: New Jersey the swing state, Dick Cheney isn't brat, and more...

Reason

The House Is Democrats' Best Chance To Check Trump's Executive Powers

With control of the House still undecided, a Democratic majority could serve as the strongest check on Trump's worst impulses.

Reason

US pollsters taking heat – again – for failing to predict Trump triumph

Polling experts called on to explain surveys that showed Trump and Harris deadlocked in a race deemed too close to call

The Guardian - US

In the end, Brian Williams held our hand

Election night cable news is designed to keep us on edge. William's low-key "experiment" eased our way into despair

Salon

Silver takes down model favoring Harris

The model projected Vice President Kamala Harris as the likely winner despite her falling behind in vote counts

Salon

Nate Silver's last forecast: Harris wins

Harris won the Electoral College in 50.015 percent of the 80,000 simulations run

Salon

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Salon

Live updates: Latest 2024 election news

Follow all of our news and analysis of the 2024 U.S. elections here

The Independent UK

Top polling guru reveals final 2024 election prediction model – and it couldn’t be any closer

‘This is my fifth presidential election and there has never been anything like this,’ Nate Silver said

Reason

The Inflation Election

Elections are decided by how people feel, and lots of Americans still feel pretty grumpy about how much it costs to go to the grocery store these days.

Reason

If You Can Keep It

Plus: Joe Rogan, Whoopi Goldberg, Liz Cheney, and more...

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The Guardian - UK

First Thing: Americans head to polls with historic election on a knife edge

Trump launched insults at his final rally as Harris ended her campaign calling for people to ‘get out the vote’. Plus, Nate Silver’s final election forecast

The Guardian - AU

US presidential election updates: Campaigning ends with celebrity endorsements, and Nate Silver’s forecast

Kamala Harris is joined by Oprah and Lady Gaga in Philadelphia, while Trump celebrates an endorsement from podcaster Joe Rogan hours before polls open on 5 November

The Independent UK

Could third-party voters spoil the 2024 election?

Jill Stein and Cornel West could peel vital votes away from Kamala Harris on Tuesday – but Robert F Kennedy Jr could do the same to Donald Trump

Salon

Iowa shows Trump underestimated women

“If Trump had ‘momentum’ in October, it has now petered out in November," says election forecaster Nate Silver

The Independent UK

Top polling guru predicts race between Trump and Harris will be a ‘toss-up’

‘We will very likely go into Tuesday night with the race being truly a toss-up,’ Nate Silver writes

Reason

It's Almost Over

Plus: New York's 17th district, Nevada's senate race, bootstrapping dating via the NYC marathon, and more...

The Conversation

US presidential election remains a toss-up, and a guide to US election day in Australia

The United States presidential election will be held Tuesday, with results coming in from Wednesday morning AEDT. I have a guide to Wednesday below that includes when polls in the key states close and other information.

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