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Latin Times
Latin Times
Sport

Spain and France headline the 2026 World Cup race as England and Argentina complete the favorites' quartet

World Cup Spain Argentina France Lionel Messi England Fifa East Rutherford Ferran Torres Maddie Meyer
El delantero español #07 Ferran Torres celebra el primer gol durante el partido amistoso internacional de fútbol entre España e Irak antes del torneo de la Copa Mundial de la FIFA 2026, en el estadio Riazor en A Coruña, norte de España, el 4 de junio de 2026. EAST RUTHERFORD, NUEVA JERSEY - 9 DE JULIO: Lionel Messi de Argentina reacciona durante el partido de semifinales de la CONMEBOL Copa América 2024 entre Canadá y Argentina en el MetLife Stadium el 9 de julio de 2024 en East Rutherford, Nueva Jersey. El delantero francés #10 Kylian Mbappé observa durante el partido amistoso internacional de fútbol entre Francia y Costa de Marfil antes del torneo de la Copa Mundial de la FIFA 2026 en el Stade de la Beaujoire en Nantes, oeste de Francia, el 4 de junio de 2026. PALM BEACH GARDENS, FLORIDA - 2 DE JUNIO: Jude Bellingham de Inglaterra el 2 de junio de 2026 en Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. (Credit: Ander Gillenea, Richard Pelham, Maddie Meyer, FRANCK FIFE/Getty Images)

The machine speaks: Spain on top

Opta's supercomputer, which simulated the tournament 10,000 times, makes Spain the likeliest champion, winning in 16.1% of runs. France (12.5%), England (above 10%) and defending champions Argentina (10.3%) round out the group. No other side cracks that 10% threshold —a statistical border that cleanly separates the real contenders from the rest of the 48-team field.

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