Prediction market traders are now pricing in a clear Democratic advantage in the 2028 US presidential race, with Republicans weighed down by a president whose approval ratings are at second-term lows and a war most Americans say they opposed.
The Polymarket contract on which party wins the 2028 US presidential election showed Democrats trading at 61 cents per share, implying a 61% probability of victory, against 39% for Republicans as of 15 April 2026. The market has generated approximately £1.28 million ($1.66 million) in total trading volume since it opened on 18 July 2025.
