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The Latest Breaking News from MRP

Labour on course for worst election result in London in nearly 50 years

The Greens and Reform are both set to eat into Labour’s London vote, putting Sir Keir Starmer’s party on course for significant losses in the capital

The Independent UK

Polanski's Greens and Farage's Reform to win London councils for first time ever in May elections political earthquake - new poll

‘If Reform and the Greens can win boroughs for the first time then that is momentous’, says pollster

Evening Standard

Labour could be locked out of Welsh government for first time in major blow to Starmer, poll shows

A YouGov MRP poll has suggested Plaid Cymru is set to become the biggest with 43 seats followed by Reform in second place on 30 with Labour on 12 and Greens on 10

The Independent UK

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Labor’s slide continues in federal polls, as special DemosAU poll has Coalition winning just nine seats

Labor is still ahead, but the latest federal polls suggest a move against them. A DemosAU MRP poll has One Nation winning 52 of the 150 House seats and the Coalition just nine. A Victorian poll has the Coalition gaining a 52–48 lead over Labor.

The Conversation

Who will win in Gorton and Denton? What the results of every byelection since 2010 tell us

The fight is on for the Gorton and Denton byelection on February 26. It is a three-way contest between Labour, Reform and the Greens. According to Electoral Calculus, a site which runs regular MRP (multi-level regression post stratification) surveys, Reform will win with 32% of the vote, the Greens will…

The Conversation

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK to win eight seats in London at next General Election as Labour implodes - new poll

Full list of constituencies in the capital set to change hands in 2029, according to new survey

Evening Standard

Labor gains in Resolve poll as DemosAU poll has One Nation winning 12 House seats

Labor expanded its national lead in a Resolve poll as a DemosAU MRP poll had One Nation winning 12 House seats. In Victoria, the Coalition has a 51–49 lead in a Resolve poll. As the SA Liberal leader resigned, a new poll gave Labor a 61–39 lead.

The Conversation

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Could Nigel Farage really win the next election? Here’s what the polls say

Reform’s lead is persistent but pollsters themselves point out that their models come with significant uncertainty

The Guardian - UK

Reform on brink of outright majority at next election, major new poll says

Disastrous polling for Labour comes amid growing questions over Keir Starmer’s leadership of the party

The Independent UK

From Transparency to Results: Inside Mesa Revenue Partners' Innovative Dashboard

Clients know MRP is motivated to secure the best possible outcome, and the dashboard ensures they can follow progress every step of the way.

International Business Times

Thames Water refuses to claw back bonuses paid using £3bn emergency loan

Money was paid out from loan meant to stabilise firm’s finances weeks before it paused retention payments plan

The Guardian - UK

Here is the single thing Labour can do to see off Reform and make British politics work

Farage’s party could win 42% of Commons seats with only 26% of the vote. That’s not the way civilised countries do democracy, says Guardian columnist Will Hayward

The Guardian - UK

New poll shows how every Scottish seat could vote – see your area

A NEW in-depth poll has suggested Reform could win Westminster seats in Scotland for the first time - and shows the right-wing party making inroads…

The National (Scotland)

Final counting shows polls understated Labor in 2025 election almost as much as they overstated it in 2019

With almost all primary votes now counted to two-party preferred (as I explained on May 29), Labor has won the national two-party vote by a 55.3–44.7 margin, although this may drop to a 55.2–44.8 margin once the remaining votes from Bradfield come in.

The Conversation

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The Conversation

Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election

A YouGov MRP poll has Labor clearly winning a majority of seats in the federal election – 84 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

The Conversation

MRP poll puts Reform ahead of Labour and the Tories – here’s why the finding should be treated with caution

Thinktank More in Common recently published an MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll which appears to show that if there was a general election in the near future, Reform would win 180 seats. According to the analysis, Labour and the Conservatives would win 165 seats each and the Liberal Democrats…

The Conversation

Labor takes large leads in YouGov and Morgan polls as surge continues

With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a seven-point lead in a national YouGov poll and an 11-point lead in a Morgan poll. An exit poll of early voters is also encouraging for Labor.

The National (Scotland)

UK facing 'unprecedented' politics as Reform UK top polls, John Curtice says

THE UK is facing “unprecedented” political circumstances as voters turn away from both Labour and the Tories, polling expert Professor John…

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The Conversation

Labor’s poll surge continues in YouGov, but it’s barely ahead in Freshwater

Labor increased its lead again in a YouGov poll, but Freshwater put the party ahead by just 50.3–49.7. This article also covers the final WA upper house results for the March 8 election.

The Conversation

Labor leads in three recent national polls, four weeks from the election

The federal election will be held in four weeks. A national YouGov poll, conducted March 28 to April 3 from a sample of 1,622, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous non-MRP YouGov poll taken March 14–19.

The Conversation

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

Labor’s regaining of polling momentum has continued into the first week of the formal election campaign. A national Newspoll, conducted March 27–29 from a sample of 1,249, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. This is Labor’s first Newspoll lead…

The Conversation

Labor gains in Redbridge poll of marginal seats and seizes lead in a Morgan poll

A poll of 20 marginal seats by Redbridge and Accent Research was conducted for the News Ltd tabloids on February 20–25, from a sample presumably over 1,000. The Coalition led by 50.5–49.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the February 4–11 marginals poll.

The Conversation

Coalition leading narrowly in four polls and would likely win an election held now

A national Newspoll, conducted February 10–14 from a sample of 1,244, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (up one).

The Guardian - UK

Labour urged to defend workers’ rights bill as poll shows huge public support

Exclusive: Poll reveals 72% of UK voters favour ban on zero-hours contracts, including majority of Tory and Reform supporters

The Guardian - UK

‘Move closer to Europe – not Trump’ voters tell Starmer in major UK poll

Pressure growing on Labour to improve trade with EU as Rachel Reeves admits Brexit damaged UK

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