The Latest Breaking News from MRP

Reform’s lead is persistent but pollsters themselves point out that their models come with significant uncertainty

Disastrous polling for Labour comes amid growing questions over Keir Starmer’s leadership of the party

With almost all primary votes now counted to two-party preferred (as I explained on May 29), Labor has won the national two-party vote by a 55.3–44.7 margin, although this may drop to a 55.2–44.8 margin once the remaining votes from Bradfield come in.

A YouGov MRP poll has Labor clearly winning a majority of seats in the federal election – 84 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

Thinktank More in Common recently published an MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) poll which appears to show that if there was a general election in the near future, Reform would win 180 seats. According to the analysis, Labour and the Conservatives would win 165 seats each and the Liberal Democrats…

With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a seven-point lead in a national YouGov poll and an 11-point lead in a Morgan poll. An exit poll of early voters is also encouraging for Labor.

THE UK is facing “unprecedented” political circumstances as voters turn away from both Labour and the Tories, polling expert Professor John…

Labor increased its lead again in a YouGov poll, but Freshwater put the party ahead by just 50.3–49.7. This article also covers the final WA upper house results for the March 8 election.

The federal election will be held in four weeks. A national YouGov poll, conducted March 28 to April 3 from a sample of 1,622, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous non-MRP YouGov poll taken March 14–19.