The Latest Breaking News from MRP

A national Newspoll, conducted February 10–14 from a sample of 1,244, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (up one).

Exclusive: Poll reveals 72% of UK voters favour ban on zero-hours contracts, including majority of Tory and Reform supporters

A national Newspoll, conducted September 16–20 from a sample of 1,249, had a 50–50 tie for the third consecutive time. Since the last Newspoll three weeks ago, primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (down one) and 12% for all…

Pro-building Labour group hopes study will spur on major planning reform and government drive to build 1.5m homes

The 2024 UK election campaign was dominated by discussion of the polls, from start to finish. This was partially because of the sheer volume of polls being published. We had more MRP (multi-level regression post-stratification) polls than ever before, many giving quite different pictures of the size of Labour’s lead.

In today’s newsletter: Whether it was a new government, the success of independents, or a farewell to Truss, in the end this election had something for everyone

London minister Greg Hands tipped to squeak home in Chelsea & Fulham amid private schools row

Nigel Farage is the party’s best hope of winning a seat but it could win up to 18, including for chair Richard Tice

Rishi Sunak insists he has not given up, with final 48-hour push for votes to ‘stop a Labour supermajority’ – as leading pollster argues polls have been wrong