The Labour Party is on course for its worst result in London in more than four decades at the upcoming local elections, a damning new poll has shown.
The Greens and Reform are both set to eat into Labour’s London vote, putting Sir Keir Starmer’s party on course for significant losses in the capital.
An MRP poll of the 32 London boroughs, conducted by YouGov for Sky News and Politico, shows Labour is on course to win the highest vote share in 15 councils – six fewer than in 2022.
The last time Labour won fewer than 15 London councils was in 1982, 44 years ago, when they won just 12.
The Green Party is expected to take the highest vote share across four councils, including Lewisham and Lambeth, while Reform is expected to take the highest share in three. Neither party has ever previously topped the poll on any council in London.
Labour sources told The Independent they are expecting a “bloodbath” in Islington, while Green Party sources said they were expecting to take Hackney.
The Conservatives remain ahead on five councils, relative to six at the last election, while the Lib Dems are set to win the most votes on four councils, up one on 2022, the poll shows.
It also suggests that Nigel Farage’s party will pick up support in outer London boroughs, which have previously gone to the Conservatives. Meanwhile, they are expected to eat into Labour’s vote share in Barking and Dagenham and Bromley.
Amid devastating approval ratings and growing questions over the direction of the government, Sir Keir’s party is expected to suffer brutal losses in May, with some polling putting the party on course to lose close to 2,000 council seats nationally.
Modelling by More in Common shows Labour losing 1,597 seats in the best-expected scenario and 1,738 seats in the worst case, while the range for Conservative losses is between 692 and 368.
Support for Reform UK is shown as stabilising following big gains in elections last year, with the expected number of new seats ranging from 1,603 to 1,273.
Meanwhile, the Greens could make the biggest gains, in the best-case scenario for the party, with an estimated range of 1,741 and 573 gains.
The Liberal Democrats are expected to gain between 503 and 148 seats.
The elections are considered a moment of particular peril for the prime minister as speculation over his position continues amid the fallout over the Peter Mandelson scandal.
It comes after former Foreign Office chief Sir Olly Robbins said there was a “dismissive approach” on vetting from No 10 and an “atmosphere of pressure” to get Lord Mandelson’s appointment as UK ambassador to the US over the line.
YouGov’s MRP polling used data from more than 4,500 adults in London in fieldwork from 27 March to 21 April. It projects vote shares for each of the parties in all 32 London boroughs.
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