Zack Polanski’s Green Party is set to gain zero MPs in London, according to a new poll.
The YouGov survey showed a “Burnham bounce” for Labour across the country with the party holding up particularly well in the capital.
Labour would be the largest party in a hung Parliament, if an election was held tomorrow, winning 241 seats, it found.
If this happened, it would still be a net loss of 170 seats for Labour from the 411 it gained at the 2024 general election.
But this would be significantly better than at the time of YouGov’s last MRP poll a year ago when Labour was set to be left with just 144 seats.
Some surveys, using differently methodologies, have suggested that the Greens could win up to 21 seats in London as Mr Polanski’s party surged in popularity during Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership.
The Green Party made major gains in the capital at the May local elections, winning control of a series of councils.
But the new poll had the Green Party gaining no MPs in the capital.
However, Tanya Abraham, YouGov’s Head of International Political Research, said: “While the Greens are not projected to win any seats in the city, they come second in 31 and are clearly building a following in the capital.”
The survey is MRP research (multi-level regression and post-stratification) which is based on large-scale polling of sections of society and extrapolating to get constituency level results.
While the findings will be a blow to the Greens they have limited read-across to the Holborn and St Pancras by-election as MRP polling does not take into account the fact that Mr Polanski is a high-profile candidate or specific local factors.
The Tories would win back six seats that they lost to Labour just over two years ago, according to the survey.
They include Chelsea and Fulham, Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Kensington and Bayswater, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
But Labour would hold on in previously Conservative areas of Chipping Barnet, Putney and Battersea.
It would also retain seats such as Tottenham where former Foreign Secretary David Lammy has stepped up action against the electoral threat from the Greens.
Reform UK would gain two seats from the Tories, Romford where MP Andrew Rosindell defected from the Conservatives to Nigel Farage’s party, as well as Hornchurch and Upminister.
It would also win Bexleyheath and Crayford, as well as Dagenham and Rainham from Labour.
Jeremy Corbyn would retain his seat in Islington North.
Overall, Labour is projected to win 51 of the capital’s 75 seats on current voting intentions, a loss of eight.
The Conservatives would be up four to 13, the Liberal Democrats would retain the six they currently hold, and Reform would end up with four.
However, Mr Farage’s party may struggle to achieve such a breakthrough given that it failed to gain control of Barking and Dagenham Council from Labour and Bexley from the Tories at the May local elections.
During Sir Keir’s premiership, Mr Farage appeared to be heading to No10.
But with Reform and its leader facing a growing storm over financial allegations, the latest poll showed the party now getting 123 seats, down 188 from a year ago, and behind the Conservatives on 130.
The Lib Dems would be on 71 seats, the Scottish National Party 40, Plaid Cymru 15 and the Greens nine.
Such an outcome would make it very hard to form a stable Government as it would require several parties to work together to get a Commons majority, over 325.
The results could also change dramatically as 37% of the constituencies were decided by margins of five points or less.
* The polling uses data from nearly 17,000 Britons in fieldwork from 23 August to 18 September 2026
