A devastating new poll has suggested that Labour could be squeezed out of government in Wales for the first time since devolution began in 1999 in a major blow to Sir Keir Starmer.
The MRP poll for YouGov has suggested that the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru is set to become the biggest with 43 seats, followed by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in second place on 30.
With the crucial election taking place on 7 May, Labour are set to see their vote collapse by 23 per cent to just 13 per cent, according to the poll, leaving them with a projected 12 seats.
Among the casualties in a damaging result for Labour would be the party’s current first minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan.
The projected result in a survey commissioned by ITV reflects the Senedd by-election for Caerphilly in October last year where Labour collapsed to third place with votes transferring to Plaid to stop Reform from winning the seat.
In Gorton and Denton last month, the Greens were the beneficiaries of tactical voting on the left, pushing Labour into third place with Reform again in second.
Meanwhile, Zack Polanski’s Greens are expected to make a breakthrough and win 10 seats having never won a place in the Welsh Senedd before.
It means that Plaid would have a choice of left-wing partners in the principalities and could form a progressive Welsh government with the Greens instead of Labour.
Both the Greens and Reform will be boosted by a new electoral system in Wales with regions decided by proportional representation with an end to constituencies.
Mr Polanski has told The Independent previously that his aim is to replace Labour as the main party of the left in England and Wales.
And he has left the door open for a deal with Plaid Cymru.
Mr Polanski said: “Right now we’re just focused on winning as many votes as possible so that Reform is kept out. We are in a position to act on our plans for Wales – to tackle the cost of living, fix the housing crisis and improve NHS care. We want Greens to have the strongest possible voice for Wales.”
With Sir Keir’s position as prime minister in doubt amid suggestions of a leadership challenge after the elections on 7 May, a collapse in Wales could seal his fate.
Wales has been a heartland for Labour and the party has always been in government there since 1999 as the majority or largest party.
The results could also see both the Tories and Lib Dems wiped out altogether in Wales, with the Conservatives on course for one seat and Liberal Democrats zero, projections show.
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh governance centre, told ITV: “The poll also suggests that the race for third place is now firmly between Labour and the Greens. Labour’s position has improved marginally since January, supported by improving underlying evaluations of UK government performance and a modest recovery in ratings for Keir Starmer from their historic January low.
“The Greens will be encouraged that they have maintained a strong position in Wales, building on their success in England. Notably, their rise does not appear to have come at Plaid Cymru’s expense, suggesting the two parties are drawing support from largely separate pools of voters. The results also point clearly to a near-supermajority for progressive parties in the Senedd.”
The MRP poll by YouGov was commissioned by ITV and uses data from nearly 3,000 Welsh adults in fieldwork from 9 to 18 March.
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