You can get The National's Real Scottish Politics newsletter free and direct to your inbox every weekday.
JOHN Curtice has given his verdict after a new poll showed Labour failing to reach a majority in Westminster.
The MRP poll from YouGov – the first from the polling company since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister – found that Labour would win 241 seats if a General Election were held tomorrow, 85 seats short of a majority.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives would take 130 seats, while Reform UK would pick up 123.
The SNP are projected to win 40 seats, an increase of 31 – making them by far the largest party in Scotland, wiping out 29 Scottish Labour seats.
The only seats Labour would be likely to keep control of in Scotland are Lothian East, Edinburgh South, Edinburgh South West, Bathgate and Linlithgow, Glasgow North, Dunfermline and Dollar and Na h-Eileanan an Iar.
Speaking to The National, Curtice said the results do not necessarily show that Labour would need to work with the SNP in the event of a hung parliament, but that Labour are placed in a “fragile position”.
This is because with support from the LibDems, the Greens and potentially the SDLP, Labour could still form a majority.
The polling expert said: “What of course is true is that it's a pretty fragile position, and if there were to be by-election losses, defections, the UK Government could begin to find itself dependent on the SNP.
“The SNP are not necessarily that far off, but it just goes to show that the political strength of the SNP isn’t just to do with how many votes you get in the ballot box.”
He added: “If you end up with a deeply hung parliament, that might just about give the SNP some significant leverage.”
Curtice pointed towards the fact the YouGov poll does not show any rise in support for the SNP compared to the 2024 General Election.
In fact, the poll shows Labour support collapsing in the devolved administrations.
The situation looks more damaging for Labour in Wales, where Welsh Labour lost the Senedd elections for the first time, beaten by pro-independence Plaid Cymru.
YouGov’s MRP poll projected the party would pick up just two seats, down from 27 in the 2024 General Election.
“It’s worse in Scotland and Wales than it is in England, that’s for sure,” Curtice said.
“We’ve already had the odd poll in both Scotland and Wales that suggests that the Burnham bounce is not having the same type of impact outside of England, but it’s kind of consistent.”
The results of the MRP poll are based on modelled responses of 16,758 UK adults, between August 23 and September 18.
