Nigel Farage’s Reform UK to win eight seats in London at next General Election as Labour implodes - new poll

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is to make a breakthrough in Labour’s London stronghold winning eight seats at the next General Election, according to a new poll.

The survey for More in Common shows Labour losing 12 constituencies in the capital after the party has haemorrhaged support, with the Conservatives gaining four overall.

But it also highlights Labour’s strength in London as it would still retain 47 seats in the city while plunging to a historic defeat which would leave it with just 85 across the whole of the country.

Mr Farage would storm into No10 with Reform winning 381 seats, up 376 on the 2024 General Election and with a majority of 112 under the scenario mapped out by the new poll based on current voting intentions.

Labour would implode to lose 326, the Conservatives would plummet to another record low by losing 51 to gain only 70 seats, the Liberal Democrats would lose half their seats to end up with just 35, the Scottish National Party would win 31 more to reach 40, while the Greens would almost double their number to nine.

Sir Keir Starmer who is facing talk of a leadership challenge after support for Labour has nosedived (PA Wire)

In London, Reform would seize four seats from Labour including Barking, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Dagenham and Rainham, and Eltham and Chislehurst.

Mr Farage’s party would win the same number of constituencies currently held by the Tories as it gains ground in Outer London including Hornchurch and Upminster, Old Bexley and Sidcup, Orpington, and Romford.

Labour would also lose a string of seats to the Conservatives including Brent West, Chelsea and Fulham, Chipping Barnet, Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Kensington and Bayswater, as well as Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

These results would be a significant change from the July 2024 General Election when the Tories ended up with zero MPs in Inner London and Reform won no seats.

Constituency	Projected change at next General Election
Barking	Reform UK gain from Labour
Bexleyheath and Crayford	Reform UK gain from Labour
Brent West	Conservative gain from Labour
Chelsea and Fulham	Conservative gain from Labour
Chipping Barnet	Conservative gain from Labour
Cities of London and Westminster	Conservative gain from Labour
Dagenham and Rainham	Reform UK gain from Labour
Eltham and Chislehurst	Reform UK gain from Labour
Finchley and Golders Green	Conservative gain from Labour
Hendon	Conservative gain from Labour
Hornchurch and Upminster	Reform UK gain from Conservative
Kensington and Bayswater	Conservative gain from Labour
Old Bexley and Sidcup	Reform UK gain from Conservative
Orpington	Reform UK gain from Conservative
Romford	Reform UK gain from Conservative
Uxbridge and South Ruislip	Conservative gain from Labour
	*Based on MRP poll for More in Common

Sir Keir Starmer would hold onto his Holborn and St Pancras seat, as would Health Secretary Wes Streeting in Ilford North and Justice Secretary David Lammy in Tottenham.

But other Cabinet ministers including Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband would be voted out.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves who is set to lose her Leeds West and Pudsey seat at the next General Election, according to a new poll (PA Wire)

The Liberal Democrats would hold onto their strongholds in South West London, winning six seats including party leader Sir Ed Davey’s Kingston and Surbiton constituency.

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn would retain his Islington North seat which he won standing as an independent in 2024.

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn who is predicted to retain his Islington North seat (PA Wire)

But Reform’s projected success would come after it gained just 31% of the vote at the next General Election which is widely expected in 2029.

So, tactical voting could significantly reduce the number of seats that it wins.

Luke Tryl, UK director for More in Common, said: “The threat of tactical voting, combined with the narrow margin of many of Reform’s projected victories, suggests their momentum may have at least temporarily stalled.

“That, combined with the fact we are still years from an election, means that despite their success in 2025, the path to the next General Election is still far from known."

Implied vote share at next General Election based on MRP poll for More in Common (More in Common)

The findings are not based on polling of individual constituencies but instead use a Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model.

This analyses results from large-scale polling on different groups in society to estimate what will happen in particularly constituencies based on their population make-up.

While some MRP polls have proved to be accurate they can struggle to reflect local factors such as independent candidates performing well.

But the predictions are more grim news for Sir Keir ahead of elections in May for councils in England, including in London, the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly when Labour is set to be hammered, according to polls.

Mr Farage is targeting several councils in Outer London, as well as far more across the country.

The Prime Minister, who is facing unrest among Labour MPs over his leadership, is seeking to turn around his party’s fortunes in the New Year, including by taking a stronger stance on undoing the economic damage from Brexit through moves towards the Single Market with more alignment to boost trade with the EU.

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