Labor is still ahead, but the latest federal polls suggest a move against them. A DemosAU MRP poll has One Nation winning 52 of the 150 House seats and the Coalition just nine. A Victorian poll has the Coalition gaining a 52–48 lead over Labor.
At the South Australian election, One Nation won 22.2% of the statewide primary vote, beating the Liberals (19.1%). This shows we should take polls with One Nation doing well seriously. They won’t necessarily fade before an election or underperform their polls.
Morgan’s consumer confidence has fallen steeply in the last four weeks to a record low of 63.1, worse than during the COVID pandemic. I believe this slump explains why Labor is not polling well.
