The Latest Breaking News from The Poll Bludger

The Coalition’s primary vote slumped four points to a record low 24% in the latest Newspoll, while One Nation was up four points to a record high 15%. One Nation also surged to 15% in an Essential poll.

A Victorian Resolve poll has Labor sliding back after a surge in August. Federal Labor had a 55–45 lead in Resolve and a 54–46 lead in Redbridge, with One Nation recording its highest vote in any poll since 1998.

Counting in several extremely close seats continues, but some results have become clearer. In Liberal-held Bradfield, Teal candidate Nicolette Boele has taken the lead, while the Calwell distribution of preferences indicates an independent is on track to pass the Liberals and benefit from their preferences against Labor. Meanwhile, Jacqui Lambie…

The ABC has called Labor wins in 93 of the 150 House of Representatives seats. The Coalition has won 43 seats, the Greens one and all Others 11, with two seats (Bradfield and Calwell) remaining undecided.

With 78% of enrolled voters counted, the ABC is calling 85 of the 150 House of Representatives seats for Labor, 39 for the Coalition, zero for the Greens and 10 for all Others, with 16 still undecided. The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 94 seats, the Coalition in 41,…

With 52% of enrolled voters counted, The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 92 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, the Coalition in 43, the Greens in two, independents in 11 and others in two. In called seats, Labor is on 76 (already a majority), the Coalition 32, independents…

While last week’s Morgan and YouGov polls had Labor continuing its surge, Newspoll is steady for the fourth successive week at 52–48 to Labor. A Redbridge poll of the marginal seats was again very strong for Labor, while YouGov and KJC seat polls were respectively good and bad for Labor.

With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a seven-point lead in a national YouGov poll and an 11-point lead in a Morgan poll. An exit poll of early voters is also encouraging for Labor.

Every election cycle the media becomes infatuated, even if temporarily, with preference deals between parties. The 2025 election is no exception, with many media reports about preference “deals” being made.