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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Likely final House seat outcome: 94 Labor, 44 Coalition, 12 Others

The ABC has called Labor wins in 93 of the 150 House of Representatives seats. The Coalition has won 43 seats, the Greens one and all Others 11, with two seats (Bradfield and Calwell) remaining undecided.

The Poll Bludger has documented the changes in the close seats. In Goldstein, Teal incumbent Zoe Daniel has surged back from a peak deficit of 1,472 votes to now trail Liberal Tim Wilson by just 292 votes on strong absents and declaration pre-polls after she lost postals by 61–39. But only about 800 votes remain, so Wilson will still win.

On Tuesday, the Liberal lead in Liberal-held Bradfield over a Teal candidate closed to just 59 votes, and the ABC uncalled a race they had called for the Liberal the previous day. On Wednesday the Liberal lead increased to 80 votes, but it’s now fallen back to 43 votes. About 420 votes remain to be counted. The Liberals will probably lead when all votes are counted, but there will be a recount.

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