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The Conversation
The Conversation
Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Labor gains in Redbridge poll of marginal seats and seizes lead in a Morgan poll

A poll of 20 marginal seats by Redbridge and Accent Research was conducted for the News Ltd tabloids on February 20–25, from a sample presumably over 1,000. The Coalition led by 50.5–49.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the February 4–11 marginals poll.

Labor won the 2022 election by 52–48 and won the marginal seats polled by 51–49, implying a 1.5-point swing to the Coalition across these seats since the last election. If this poll were applied nationally, it suggests a Labor lead of 50.5–49.5.

Primary votes were 41% Coalition (down two), 34% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady) and 13% for all Others (up one). Anthony Albanese’s net favourability was up five points to -11 while Peter Dutton’s was down two to -13. By 50–33, voters thought things were headed in the wrong direction (55–27 previously).

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