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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Labor slides back in a Victorian Resolve poll; federal Labor still well on top

A Victorian Resolve poll has Labor sliding back after a surge in August. Federal Labor had a 55–45 lead in Resolve and a 54–46 lead in Redbridge, with One Nation recording its highest vote in any poll since 1998.

A Victorian state Resolve poll for The Age, conducted with the federal September and October Resolve polls from a sample of over 1,000, gave the Coalition 33% of the primary vote (steady since August), Labor 30% (down two), the Greens 12% (steady), independents 10% (up one) and others 15% (up two).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-party estimate for its state polls, but The Poll Bludger estimated a “tight result”, with preference flows from the 25% who are voting for an independent or another party being crucial.

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