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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Labor takes large leads in YouGov and Morgan polls as surge continues

With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a seven-point lead in a national YouGov poll and an 11-point lead in a Morgan poll. An exit poll of early voters is also encouraging for Labor.

A national YouGov poll, conducted April 17–22 from a sample of 1,500, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the April 11–15 YouGov poll. This is Labor’s biggest lead in YouGov this term.

Primary votes were 33.5% Labor (up 0.5), 31% Coalition (down two), 14% Greens (up one), 10.5% One Nation (up 3.5), 2% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 5% independents (down four) and 4% others (up one). In this poll, the Coalition has lost votes on its right to One Nation.

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