With 63% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Tasmanian state election, The Poll Bludger is projecting that the final results will give the Liberals 39.7% of the statewide vote (up 3.0% since the March 2024 election), Labor just 25.7% (down 3.1%), the Greens 14.1% (up 0.2%), the Shooters 3.2% (up 0.9%), the Nationals 1.7% and independents 15.4%.
Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark system for its lower house elections. As described previously, the five seats Tasmania has at federal elections each return seven members for a total of 35 MPs. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%.
The main Poll Bludger page gives projected quotas for each electorate for the Liberals, Labor and the Greens. The Liberals have just under four quotas in Braddon, over three in Bass and Lyons and over two in Clark and Franklin, suggesting 14 definite seats with more possible.
