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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Preference deals can decide the outcome of a seat in an election – but not always

Every election cycle the media becomes infatuated, even if temporarily, with preference deals between parties. The 2025 election is no exception, with many media reports about preference “deals” being made.

However, it is important to remember that voters are not required to follow the how to vote cards of the parties they vote for, and only major party voters have a significant percentage who follow the cards.

Other than the Greens and One Nation, minor parties lack resources to put people at every polling place who will give voters how to vote cards. As a result, how to vote follow rates for most minor parties are low.

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