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The Latest Breaking News from Polymarket

Polymarket has favorites for Time’s Person of the Year. They are all Trump foes

The president has won the honor twice before, but the third nod might not come anytime soon

The Independent UK

Cilia Flores: What the Betting Markets Really Say About Her Chances of Walking Free This Year

Betting markets give Maduro's wife a leading, but far from certain, shot at release by year's end. The legal calendar tells a more cautious story.

Latin Times

152 Wallets on Trump Jr.-Linked Polymarket Made $8M Betting on US Military Moves With 97% Win Rate

A report suggests over 150 Polymarket wallets may have used non-public US military information to win $8 million on defence bets, raising concerns about insider trading and market transparency.

International Business Times UK

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More Than 150 Polymarket Wallets May Have Traded On U.S. Military Secrets, Research Finds

The report also found large traders and bots appeared to copy some suspicious bets before military action.

International Business Times

Polymarket Faces Fresh Insider Trading Scrutiny After 152 Wallets Allegedly Made $8 Million Betting on US Military Markets: Report

Prediction platform Polymarket is facing renewed scrutiny over suspected insider trading after research flagged more than 150 wallets that allegedly profited from bets tied to confidential U.S. military information.

Benzinga

Fake polling from mysterious company highlights danger of unvetted election surveys

A mysterious political firm admitted to fabricating multiple election polls this month

The Independent UK

'Big Short' Investor Steve Eisman Says AI Has an 'Achilles' Heel' — But It's Too Early to Short the Boom

“Big Short” investor Steve Eisman says the AI boom has an “Achilles’ heel”: its enormous dependence on OpenAI and Anthropic.

Benzinga

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JPMorgan Debanked Polymarket Last Year. Now It's Keeping the Door Open for an IPO.

JPMorgan informed Polymarket in October that it would need to find another bank, and the prediction market platform has since moved its banking business to another lender, whose identity was not disclosed.

International Business Times

Trump thinks AOC is running for president in 2028 and trying to abandon her ‘woke’ policies

The president’s comments came after AOC saw a surge in her predicted 2028 odds

The Independent UK

JPMorgan Debanked Polymarket Over Regulatory Concerns, But Eyes Role in Potential IPO: Report

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) reportedly ended its banking relationship with Polymarket in late 2025 over regulatory concerns, highlighting the challenges prediction-market companies face as the industry rapidly expands in the U.S.

Benzinga

Prediction markets' reputation comes back to earth after surprise result in Wisconsin

Kalshi and Polymarket gave Francesca Hong roughly a 95% chance of winning on the eve of the primary, before David Crowley’s upset.

Fortune

Prediction markets have a new frontrunner for the 2028 presidential election

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Prediction markets place election odds

Add betting markets to the list of things election officials are worried about this year

Salon

Bernie Sanders Slammed Google Co-Founder for Spending Millions to Stop California's Billionaire Tax Proposal—Crypto Punters Weigh Passage Odds

Cryptocurrency bookmakers slightly raised odds that California’s one-time billionaire wealth tax will pass in this year’s general election.

Benzinga

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news in one place.

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Benzinga

Nate Silver's New Election Model Makes Democrats Favorites to Flip Senate—Prediction Markets Aren't so Sure

Nate Silver‘s new midterm model launched Tuesday with a striking call: Democrats are 57.3% favorites to win the Senate, a chamber where they need a net gain of four seats against a 53-47 Republican majority.

International Business Times

New York Says Prediction Markets Are Predatory. It Is Investigating Them.

New York City announced that it is investigating prediction market betting websites, alleging that the companies use predatory marketing tactics to target young people.

Salon

The U.S. economy is a giant betting app

Senators oppose gambling on wildfire outcomes, but the financial sector rewards amoral wagers

Fortune

Kalshi's CEO is racing to build a futures market for AI's most precious resource, which could be worth $100 trillion by 2030

Compute is the new oil—but building its futures market may be just as messy.

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news in one place.

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International Business Times

Government Shutdown Odds Just Dropped: Bitcoin Traders Are Reading It Wrong

The House passed a stopgap funding bill 220-205 on July 21, shoving the government's spending deadline from September 30 to December 4 and conveniently clear of the midterms.

Fortune

Exclusive: River Markets announces $8.5 million seed round to build prediction market trading tools for institutions

The round was led by Haun Ventures alongside Y Combinator, Coinbase Ventures and others.

Kiplinger

Understand Prediction Markets Before They Come For You

As these platforms expand, they're targeting an older, more affluent audience. But it pays to be wary of the hype.

Benzinga

Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

The S&P 500 ended Monday almost unchanged as investors weighed renewed uncertainty around U.S.-Iran negotiations against hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could eventually reopen. With key inflation data due this week, Polymarket traders are leaning toward another positive open Tuesday.

Fortune

Kalshi cracks down on insider trading as Trump family looks to increase prediction market presence

Prediction markets are becoming intertwined with the government, and Kalshi is trying to prove it’s policing insider trading.

Barchart

Why the CFTC and States Like Utah Are Fighting Over Event Contracts — ‘You Can't Rebrand Illegal Gambling’

Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction market platforms face an existential threat in the form of legal challenges that suggest their event contracts are nothing more than illegal gambling games.

The Conversation

Wealthsimple’s new prediction markets app exposes gaps in Canada’s gambling protections

Wealthsimple’s new prediction markets app recently launched, in partnership with Kalshi, an American prediction market platform. It’s only the second firm in the country authorized by Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) to do so, after Interactive Brokers Canada.

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