Since prediction markets exploded in popularity in 2024, the industry’s two leading players, Kalshi and Polymarket, have been raising staggering amounts of money. In the case of Kalshi, the startup notched a $1 billion Series F in May that valued it at $22 billion, and investors are eyeing an initial public offering as soon as next year. But even as the company pulls in gobs of revenue, its business model faces huge uncertainty due to a looming Supreme Court case that raises the question of whether that valuation is justified. Now, research firm PitchBook has put out a 46-page report that seeks to define Kalshi’s true worth.
The detailed report by analyst Franco Granda parses financial metrics and examines the legal landscape confronting prediction markets, and ultimately concludes Kalshi should be valued at $30.4 billion based on expected 2028 adjusted earnings. The report qualifies that figure by forecasting that assigns a $22.8 billion valuation to the company in the event of a bear case scenario, and a $42.1 billion figure for a bullish scenario.
