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The Latest Breaking News from Polymarket

US special forces soldier arrested after Trump’s DOJ says he won $400,000 betting on Maduro raid

Gannon Ken Van Dyke is accused of making more than a dozen Polymarket bets on the capture of the ousted Venezuelan leader

The Independent UK

‘Hairdryer or lighter?’: French police look at claim of sensor tampering to win weather bets

Forecasting service raises alarm over data from Paris airport used to settle Polymarket wagers on temperature

The Guardian - UK

Police investigate after claims ‘hair dryer used to manipulate weather sensor to win $34k bet’

Agencies suspect that a sensor at Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris was tampered with after suspicious bets were placed on Polymarket

The Independent UK

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Hair dryer trick behind €25,000 win? France probes potential weather data scam linked to Polymarket

Officials in France have launched an investigation into the potential compromise of national weather sensors after a series of anomalous temperature readings coincided with betting activity on Polymarket.

Euronews

Logan Paul 'lowballed' as he sells WrestleMania chain

Logan Paul has sold the chain he wore at WrestleMania last weekend, but he wasn't happy.

BANG Premier

Investors are valuing Polymarket at a discount to archrival Kalshi—and its crypto ties could be one reason why

Polymarket is fundraising at a reported $15 billion valuation, while Kalshi was last valued at $22 billion.

Fortune

Prediction Markets and Social Gaming Under Legal Spotlight

Prediction markets and social games are turning the world into a casino.

inkl

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Silicon Valley is building its own news-industrial complex

"Monitoring the Situation" has become one of the most viral and lucrative memes in tech.

Axios

John Oliver on prediction markets: ‘Betting on war is really dark’

The Last Week Tonight host dug into the rapidly expanding, poorly regulated free-for-all of ‘prediction markets’ like Kalshi and Polymarket

The Guardian - US

Polymarket in fundraising talks that could value the prediction platform at $15bn

Bets placed on Middle East conflict has led to US firm experiencing big increase in volume

The Guardian - UK

The crypto industry and prediction markets share a mission of disruption—but it’s not clear where crypto fits in

Big crypto players Coinbase and Robinhood view platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as allies and rivals.

Fortune

Kalshi’s fight over sports betting is hurtling toward the Supreme Court—and the future of gambling is at stake

Kalshi is in a make-or-break fight to preserve a lucrative new prediction markets industry, expected to grow to over $200 billion this year.

Fortune

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?

Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers

The Guardian - US

Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh is worth more than $100 million and has stakes in SpaceX and Polymarket

Ahead of Warsh’s confirmation hearing next week, he disclosed his financial holdings.

Fortune

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International Business Times UK

Democrats Surge to 61% Chance of Winning 2028 Election as Early Forecast Signals Major Political Shift

Prediction markets indicate a Democratic advantage in the 2028 US presidential race, driven by Trump's low approval ratings and midterm election trends favoring Democrats.

The Independent UK

Eric Swalwell summoned by FBI as bets are placed on his arrest

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Kash Patel invites Eric Swalwell to speak to FBI over sexual assault claims as Polymarket launches odds on his arrest

Eric Swalwell has vehemently denied the claims against him, describing them as ‘false allegations’ in a statement

The Guardian - UK

Wednesday briefing: Why are people turning global crises into high‑stakes bets?

In today’s newsletter: Prediction markets are reshaping how people interact with world events, turning warfare into a tradable speculation

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Roll Call

Betting against political prediction markets

The rise of political prediction markets and several well-timed trades have spurred lawmakers to introduce multiple bills aimed at stopping or regulating insider trading in prediction markets. But lawmakers are far from agreeing on how far to extend such bans. “Members of Congress should be prohibited from participating in prediction…

The Independent UK

Iran-US war latest: Trump says war is close to over as US claims ‘maritime superiority’ in Middle East

JD Vance said Trump ‘wants to make the grand bargain’ with Iran after peace talks failed over the weekend

The Guardian - UK

‘Abhorrent’: the inside story of the Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

A Guardian investigation reveals how the prediction market can shape news – and how it rules on ‘the truth’

Fortune

Prediction markets have made betting easier than ever—and young men are paying the price

“I think about that money I lost every single day,” says Samuel Sharkey, a 23-year-old who lost about $10,000 on Kalshi.

International Business Times UK

Harvard Study Estimates $143 Million in Polymarket Profits May Have Been Generated Through Insider Information

A Harvard-linked study and unusual betting activity have raised questions about possible insider information in Polymarket trades tied to Iran and Trump-related geopolitical events, though no wrongdoing has been proven.

The Independent UK

White House warns staffers against placing bets on global events amid insider trading accusations

IN FULL

International Business Times UK

Who Will Win the Election 2028? White House Warns Staff Against Betting on Platforms Like Polymarket

The White House has issued a blunt warning to staff against using insider information to bet on Election 2028 odds via platforms like Polymarket. This follows a $44bn surge in political wagering and concerns over insider trading linked to President Trump's recent military decisions. Lawmakers are now pushing for a…

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