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The Latest Breaking News from Kevin Bonham

US presidential election remains very close; late counting in Australian elections

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.4, a gain for Trump since last Wednesday, when Harris led by 48.8–47.2. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led…

The Conversation

LNP wins Queensland election, likely with a clear majority

With 45% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Queensland state election, The Poll Bludger’s results have the Liberal National Party (LNP) winning 38 of the 93 seats, Labor 26, Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) three and independents one.

The Conversation

How preference flows will determine the final make up of the next Assembly

The election is over, but there's lots to be done to work out MLAs.

The Canberra Times

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Labor retains office at ACT election; US presidential election remains on a knife’s edge

The Labor Party has won a seventh consecutive ACT election.

The Conversation

Labor and Albanese gain in post-budget Newspoll, but other polls don’t look as rosy

A national Newspoll, conducted after the May 14 budget from a sample of over 1,200 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll four weeks ago.

The Conversation

Coalition hopes to exorcise the ghost of Scott Morrison as Cook goes to the polls

Byelection in the south Sydney seat expected to be won by Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy as AEC warns voter turnout could be low

The Guardian - AU

Liberal candidate wins by-election for ex-PM's seat

A by-election to decide who replaces former prime minister Scott Morrison as the federal member for Cook has been won by fellow Liberal Simon Kennedy.

AAP

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Tasmanian voters seemingly unmoved by electioneering

Tasmanians will head to the polls on March 23 but it remains to be seen if campaigning by the major parties has swayed voters.

AAP

Tasmanian election: All the chaos and fun of Australia’s most contradictory polity

Crikey’s guide to the knotted politics of the Apple Isle.

Crikey

Cast your votes, close elections on the cards in 2024

Voters in Qld, the ACT and the NT will head to the polls in 2024, with a tight by-election contest in a federal Victorian seat also taking place.

AAP

Extra senators for ACT and NT will benefit left but increase malapportionment

The Poll Bludger has summarised the final report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) that was released Monday. The most contentious recommendation is that the number of senators for both the ACT and the Northern Territory be increased from two to four.

The Conversation

Voice data: Understanding the gravity of the No vote and Indigenous support levels

It looked for a while that the Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum might buck the trend, but the Yes number’s fall accelerated quickly.

Crikey

‘Completely unsound’: Experts skewer Indigenous Voice vote claim

‘This analysis would get tossed out even in high school level geography, social studies or statistics,’ one professor said.

Crikey

What the final polls are telling us: majority intends to vote no in voice referendum

There is no sign of a trend back to a yes vote, which has an estimated 41.5% support nationally – but needs to be closer to 53%

The Guardian - AU

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AAP

Early election risk as only Liberal government on brink

An early election is in the hands of Tasmania's former attorney-general Elise Archer, with Australia's only Liberal administration on the brink of collapse.

The Guardian - AU

Polls show support for the voice is falling. How do they work, and will they be more accurate than in 2019?

Better demographic targeting and the ability to reach participants online among reasons pollsters are more confident in their predictions than previously

The Guardian - AU

Indigenous voice to parliament no campaign leading in every state, poll analysis shows

Support for voice has dropped by 21 percentage points nationally in the past year, according to Guardian Australia’s poll tracker

Crikey

Box-ticking claims circulating on Voice referendum are false

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The Conversation

Victoria's Labor Party plunges in a Morgan poll after Commonwealth Games axed

A Victorian Morgan SMS poll, conducted July 19–20 – the two days after Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced the 2026 Commonwealth Games would be cancelled – gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition, a huge 8.5-point gain for the Coalition since a May Morgan poll. The sample size was…

The Guardian - AU

Yes campaign ‘keeping the faith’ despite declining polling for voice

Key members of the campaign for an Indigenous voice to parliament say they won’t be caught up analysing numbers as some polls show no vote growing

The Guardian - AU

The devils and the detail of the $715m AFL stadium dividing Tasmania

A plan to build a new ground during a housing crisis has split the community – and could cost the state a football team

The Conversation

Albanese's ratings improve in a post-budget Newspoll; left to control NSW upper house

A federal Newspoll, conducted May 11-13 from a sample of 1,516, is the first poll taken since the May 9 budget. It gave Labor a 55-45 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (steady), 34% Coalition (up one),…

The Conversation

While the Voice has a large poll lead now, history of past referendums indicates it may struggle

Support for the Indigenous Voice to Parliament has dropped since the first polls that asked about it in late 2022. Analyst Kevin Bonham has plotted all the poll results, and the average Voice support is down from 65% in August 2022 to 57% now.

AAP

Last-minute win hampers NSW Labor's legislative agenda

The NSW government could have an uphill battle passing legislation after the final count left the upper house evenly split between Labor and the coalition.

The Conversation

Voice support increases in Essential and Resolve polls

In the latest Essential poll, support for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to parliament increased slightly to 60-40, from 59-41 in March. But hard “no” support was up two to 26%, soft “no” was down three to 14%, while 27% remained soft “yes” supporters.

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