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The Latest Breaking News from Kevin Bonham

Latest polls still have One Nation leading on primary votes, but not gaining

Since the May 12 federal budget, every poll has had One Nation gaining when measured against the last issue of that poll. While they’re still leading on primary votes in the YouGov and Morgan polls, One Nation was down one point in YouGov and steady in Morgan.

The Conversation

‘Refugees Are Welcome Here’ site could be part of ‘connected campaign’ to funnel votes to One Nation in Victoria

Exclusive: Rightwing activist denies responsibility for set of aspiring political parties and their potential preferences, as Guardian analysis suggests links

The Guardian - AU

Albanese’s ratings jump in federal polls; Liberals easily retain Nepean at Victorian byelection

In both the Redbridge and Freshwater polls, Anthony Albanese’s net favourability has jumped eight points since late March to -9. In Redbridge, the Coalition rebounded from a low of 17% in March to 22%.

The Conversation

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2 of 3 new federal polls have the Coalition gaining from One Nation, but Labor clearly ahead

The Morgan and YouGov federal polls have the Coalition gaining from One Nation since Angus Taylor replaced Sussan Ley as Liberal leader. Unlike the DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog polls that I reported Tuesday, these two polls have Labor clearly ahead of the Coalition and One Nation after preferences.

The Conversation

First test for Liberal leader as party fights 'optics'

A woman tasked with steering state Liberals out of a political mire denies egos will make it difficult to select who's in and out of the shadow cabinet.

AAP

Brazen lies, ballot box bullies among election antics

From intimidation at polling booths to constant social media nonsense on voting, an inquiry has has been told all about new dark sides of election politics.

AAP

Greens may be a problem for Labor in next week’s Tasmanian no-confidence vote

The Liberals won 14 of the 35 lower house seats at the July 19 Tasmanian state election, Labor ten, the Greens five, independents five and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers one.

The Conversation

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Archer shot into state cabinet amid new political clash

A high-profile former federal Liberal MP headlines the inclusions in a state premier's revamped cabinet after his minority government was recommissioned.

AAP

Libs make first pitch to kingmakers in race to govern

A Liberal leader has made his first play to form government with balance-of-power independents after a state election that delivered another hung parliament.

AAP

Snap poll likely to deliver independents' day 2.0

All signs point to another hung parliament in a state heading to its fourth election in the space of seven years.

AAP

2 polls have Tasmania headed for another hung parliament, but disagree on which party is ahead

Two Tasmanian state polls imply another hung parliament at the July 19 election under Tasmania’s proportional system. In one of these polls, Labor leads the Liberals, while in the other the Liberals lead.

The Conversation

Labor gains a Senate seat from the Liberals in South Australia, while Jacqui Lambie is re-elected

Buttons have been pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the Senate in South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. Labor gained a seat from the Liberals in SA, with the other two unchanged. There’s also been further counting in close lower house seats.

The Conversation

Attacks on Australia’s preferential voting system are ludicrous. We can be proud of it

It’s been argued the election would have had a different outcome with first-past-the-post voting. I cannot overstate how unsound this assumption is

The Guardian - AU

Sarah Witty v Adam Bandt: how an unlikely Labor champion took down a Greens giant

Melbourne was barely on the ALP’s radar as a seat it could win – but a sparsely funded campaign proved powerful

The Guardian - AU

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AAP

Two ministers face the axe from Albanese's top team

Senior ministers are on the chopping block as Labor's factional powerbrokers carve up cabinet positions following a dominant federal election victory.

AAP

Independent zest also poses test for 'complacent' Labor

Despite a landslide election victory, Labor could soon lose its grip on historic heartlands as analysts suggest Australian voters are feeling taken for granted.

The Guardian - AU

Status quo or a salmon revolution? Anything could happen in Tasmania’s five crucial seats

Labor and the Liberals each hold one seat by a tiny margin and one more comfortably. But none is a sure thing – and a long-shot independent is aiming for a huge upset

The Guardian - AU

Clive Palmer claims how-to-vote cards ‘interfered with’ after backlash over teal preferences

Billionaire says it wasn’t the first time Trumpet of Patriots operations have been ‘hacked’ – without providing evidence to support claims

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AAP

Budging Labor incumbents huge task even for Muslim Vote

Support of Muslim political groups won't be enough to get independents over the line against entrenched senior Labor figures without a Liberal preference deal.

The Conversation

Labor and Albanese end 2024 in worst poll position this term

A national Essential poll , conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,151, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided, unchanged from the late November Essential poll. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 30% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (up two), 6% One Nation (down two), 1% UAP (steady),…

The Guardian - AU

Stage set for teal challenge in blue-ribbon seat of Bradfield as Paul Fletcher resigns

Moderate faction to rally behind Gisele Kapterian, a Salesforce executive and former Liberal staffer, in the North Sydney seat to combat independent Nicolette Boele

The Guardian - AU

Despite a dire poll result, Labor isn’t panicking – it’s all still to play for in 2025

While plenty of voters feel worse off than in 2022, they aren’t convinced the Coalition will do any better

The Conversation

US presidential election remains very close; late counting in Australian elections

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.4, a gain for Trump since last Wednesday, when Harris led by 48.8–47.2. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led…

The Conversation

LNP wins Queensland election, likely with a clear majority

With 45% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Queensland state election, The Poll Bludger’s results have the Liberal National Party (LNP) winning 38 of the 93 seats, Labor 26, Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) three and independents one.

The Canberra Times

How preference flows will determine the final make up of the next Assembly

The election is over, but there's lots to be done to work out MLAs.

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