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The Latest Breaking News from Kevin Bonham

Victorian Newspoll has Labor's lead down, but would still win with three weeks until election

The Victorian election will be held in three weeks, on November 26. A Newspoll, conducted October 31 to November 3 from a sample of 1,007, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the last Victorian Newspoll in late August.

The Conversation

Labor extends big lead in Newspoll, but Morgan is much better for Coalition

This week’s Newspoll is the second since the May federal election, after the first appeared five weeks ago. Labor led by 57-43, a one point gain for Labor. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady), 31% Coalition (down two), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady)…

The Conversation

Record 85.7% of Greens preferenced Labor at federal election; electoral reform proposals

Under compulsory preferential voting, all formal votes must eventually preference one of the major parties over the other. The electoral commission has released preference flow information for all minor parties, This means we can tell, for example, how many Greens voters preferred Labor and how many the Coalition.

The Conversation

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Did the Morrison government try to suppress voting in the Northern Territory?

Anthony Albanese claims low voter turnout is result of tactics ‘straight out of the right-wing Republican playbook’. Is this true?

The Guardian - AU

Socialist Alliance candidate Pat O'Shane reflects on shifting the debate in far north Queensland

Kuku Yalanji woman Pat O'Shane's primary vote of just over 4 per cent may appear modest, but it is the Socialist Alliance's best-ever result in a seat outside Victoria and its best anywhere at this year's election.

ABC News

Tasmanian seats of Bass, Lyons edge closer to final results

As the counting of votes gets closer to finalising the result across Australia, those vying for undecided Tasmanian seats best keep the celebratory drinks on ice for a little while longer.

ABC News

Eric Abetz's political career looks doomed, with Jacqui Lambie Network's Tammy Tyrrell set to take Senate spot

After nearly three decades, Eric Abetz, a staunch conservative and defender of Christian values, looks to be out of a job. So, who is the Tasmanian Liberal and what do we know about the Jacqui Lambie Network candidate who appears to have won his seat in the Senate?

ABC News

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Australian Greens hope election focus on climate will bring their biggest representation yet

Leaders eye balance of power as climate issues and independents boost the Greens’ electoral chances

The Guardian - AU

Australia: Labor’s lead narrows in three new national polls

Polling analyst for Australia's The Conversation site, Adrian Beaumont, analyses three big polls showing some encouragement for Scott Morrison's incumbent Liberal-National coalition

Newsroom.co.nz

Labor's lead narrows in three new national polls; and seat polls galore

The final Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted May 12-17 from a sample of 2,049, gave Labor just a 52-48 lead by 2019 election preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight’s Resolve. By respondent preferences, Labor’s lead was narrower at 51-49, a three-point gain for the Coalition.

The Conversation

Will Australia’s opinion polls be more accurate in 2022 than at the last election?

Polling companies have introduced new techniques since they failed to predict Scott Morrison’s 2019 election win. Now they anxiously wait to see if they have worked

The Guardian - AU

Trade unions back Local Party's Leanne Minshull for Senate, in break with tradition

In a break with tradition, several trade unions in Tasmania are backing the lead candidate of a newly founded political party over Labor for the Senate.

ABC News

Upper House elections in Huon, Elwick and McIntyre this weekend for Tasmanians

It is escaping everyone's attention, but there is another election taking place in Tasmania's south-east — the battle to enter the state's Upper House.

ABC News

Race for the Senate: could Labor and the Greens gain control?

As well as the whole House of Representatives, 40 of the 76 Senate seats will be up for election on May 21. There are 12 senators per state and two per territory. At half-Senate elections, six senators for each state and the four territory senators are up for election. Unless…

The Conversation

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The Conversation

Labor still has clear lead in Newspoll and Resolve, but Albanese’s ratings slump

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 14-17 from a sample of 1,510, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since last week. Primary votes were 36% Labor (down one), 35% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (up two), 4% One Nation (up one), 4% UAP (steady) and 9% for all Others (down one).

ABC News

Who is behind Tasmanian Liberal Eric Abetz's 'below-the-line' Senate re-election campaign?

Six years after he called a colleague's election campaign urging people to vote below the line destabilising, Eric Abetz's supporters are doing exactly that.

ABC News

Senate race heats up as minor parties, independents wrestle over who might hold balance of power

As Australians head to the polls, some high-profile senators, including One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson and Liberal Eric Abetz, are in the fight for their political lives.

ABC News

Tasmania has 'a habit' of large seat swings, and this election won't be any different, experts say

The marginal Tasmanian electorates of Bass, Braddon and Lyons are likely to get plenty of visits from federal politicians over the six weeks before the election.

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The Conversation

As the election campaign begins, what do the polls say, and can we trust them this time?

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has called the federal election for May 21. What do the polls say, and how do we know if they are accurate?

The Conversation

Gains for Labor in three post-budget polls, as budget has weak response compared with historical record

The polls presented here are in addition to Monday’s Newspoll (54-46 to Labor) and Ipsos (55-45 to Labor), which I covered here.

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