Eric Abetz's 28-year stint in the Senate looks all but certain to come to an end, with him requiring a mammoth below-the-line vote in order to continue his political career.
The Jacqui Lambie Network's Tammy Tyrrell is considered likely to be elected to the sixth Senate seat, having received 56 per cent of a quota, with just over half the votes counted.
Election analyst Kevin Bonham said a result with two Liberals, two ALP senators, Green Peter Whish-Wilson and Ms Tyrrell being elected was "very clear cut".
"On current figures, it's very hard to see anything that could unsettle that," he said.
It means Senator Abetz requires a sizeable below-the-line vote to leapfrog colleague Wendy Askew for the second Liberal Party senate spot — a prospect Dr Bonham said was highly unlikely.
"His below-the-line vote would have to be absolutely enormous for him to retain, so I would assume that he is going to lose and that Wendy Askew will be the second Liberal," he said.
"Eric Abetz would need to have a below-the-line [vote] of something in the order of 10 per cent, which is almost twice what (former Labor senator) Lisa Singh got in order to become effectively the second Liberal in the count after preferences.
Senator Abetz told ABC Radio Hobart on Monday morning that he was not making a concession "at this time".
"But it'd be fair to say it'll be pretty tough," he said.
"There's light, there's hope and so we will wait and see, but with that said, I'll be attending to tidying up my office.
"In the event I'm re-elected, I'll have a tidier office which won't be a bad thing, and if not, I'll have a head start on the task that awaits me."
He said the Liberal Party did well in Tasmania at the election but he was "disappointed" to have been placed third on the party's Senate ticket.
"The feedback I've got from the overwhelming majority of the party membership is a shake of the head and saying: 'What on Earth were they thinking?'" he said.
"But that was the process within the Liberal Party, that's what they did, and we will now live with the consequence of that."
Equality campaigner welcomes Abetz's likely demise
Prominent Tasmanian LGBTIQA+ rights campaigner Rodney Croome was not waiting for more votes to flow in, already celebrating Senator Abetz's political demise.
Liberal senator Jonathon Duniam, who took Senator Abetz's regular spot at the top of the party's ticket, said he was not willing to accept his colleague had lost his seat just yet.
"There's a lot of counting to go," he said.
"I remain hopeful that Eric will be returned to Canberra and can continue to do the work he does so well."
"We know that with the preference flows going in all sorts of directions anything can happen.
"It is a tight race, and I don't think we can stand here confidently and say that one or another outcome will be where we get to," Senator Duniam said.
Likely end of long reign
Eric Abetz has been a mainstay of Tasmania's political scene since the early 1990s.
Born in Germany in 1958 and emigrating with his parents to Tasmania three years later, Senator Abetz went to Taroona High School and studied at the University of Tasmania.
It was there that he started to make waves in politics, serving as president of the university's Liberal club and becoming national president of the Australian Liberal Students' Federation.
He pursued a legal career, eventually forming legal firm Abetz Curtis with friend Roger Curtis, and became the president of the Liberal Party's Tasmanian branch in 1990.
He was elected to the Senate in 1994, chosen to fill a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Liberal Brian Archer, after missing out on a Senate spot in the 1993 election.
A conservative powerbroker inside the Liberal Party, Senator Abetz was appointed special minister of state by former prime minister John Howard in 2001 and joined the cabinet in 2006 as forestry minister.
He was a member of Brendan Nelson, Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott's shadow cabinets between 2007 and 2013, holding the portfolio of innovation, industry, science and research before moving into employment and workplace relations.
He held that portfolio as minister, as well as being the leader of the government in the Senate when Mr Abbott won the 2013 federal election, until he was dumped in 2015 when Mr Turnbull successfully challenged for the leadership.
He has since been a vocal member on the backbench, espousing his Christian views on a range of policy matters.
He has opposed same-sex marriage, action on climate change, and abortion rights, has regularly attacked the union movement and is a staunch advocate for the monarchy and Australia generating nuclear power.
Senator Abetz was demoted to the third spot on the Liberal ticket last year, and has since said he has fallen victim to "ageism and sexism".
Who is Tammy Tyrrell?
Jacqui Lambie's office manager went to school in Ulverstone and Devonport on the state's north-west coast.
Her LinkedIn page shows she has had a varied work history, working as a service station attendant and on a farm in South Australia before working as a packer, potato harvester and farmhand on the north-west coast.
She has also worked as an administrative assistant and in the employment services sector.
When she was announced as the Jacqui Lambie Network's top Senate candidate, Ms Tyrrell likened herself to Senator Lambie.
"What you see is what you get. I'm honest, I'm frank, I'm genuine. I live in the real world, and we need more people from the real world in parliament," she said.
"I know I'm not a usual candidate for the Senate.
"I didn't go to uni, I don't have a law degree, I'm not rich or from a well-off family, and I've never been a member of a union.
It is still expected to take several weeks to see if Ms Tyrrell joins Senator Lambie in Canberra as her colleague, rather than her employee.
