As the election campaign begins, what do the polls say, and can we trust them this time?

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has called the federal election for May 21. What do the polls say, and how do we know if they are accurate?

There have been five national polls conducted since the March 29 budget. Newspoll gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since mid-March, and Ipsos a 55-45 lead (its first poll since the 2019 election). Morgan gave Labor a 57-43 lead, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week.

Essential’s “2PP+”, which includes undecided voters, gave Labor a 50-45 lead (48-44 two weeks ago). Analyst Kevin Bonham estimated Resolve would be about 55.5-44.5 to Labor from the primary votes, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since mid-February.