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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
National
Elias Visontay

Will Australia’s opinion polls be more accurate in 2022 than at the last election?

Murray Goot Scott Morrison Australia Kevin Bonham Labor Rebecca Huntley MRP Coalition Guardian Australia
Voters at polling booth in 2019 election
Major opinion polls failed to predict the outcome of the 2019 Australian federal election, but polling companies now promise greater rigour and have employed new methods. Photograph: Bianca de Marchi/AAP

Every major opinion poll failed to predict Scott Morrison’s re-election in 2019, but once again news organisations have run numerous stories based on polls in the current campaign, including some that point to dramatic results nationally and in specific seats.

The 2019 result sent shock waves through the polling industry, and kicked off a period of reflection, innovation and transparency.

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