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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

2 of 3 new federal polls have the Coalition gaining from One Nation, but Labor clearly ahead

Labor Coalition One Nation Angus Taylor Sussan Ley Morgan DemosAU YouGov Essential Greens

The Morgan and YouGov federal polls have the Coalition gaining from One Nation since Angus Taylor replaced Sussan Ley as Liberal leader. Unlike the DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog polls that I reported Tuesday, these two polls have Labor clearly ahead of the Coalition and One Nation after preferences.

Whereas the combined primary vote for One Nation and the Coalition was 49% in both DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog, it was just 44.5% in Morgan and 46% in YouGov.

Essential is the other new poll, and that gave the Coalition its first lead over Labor after preferences in a poll since the May 2025 election. Essential’s respondent preferences favour the Coalition more than other polls that use respondent preferences.

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