A national Essential poll , conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,151, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided, unchanged from the late November Essential poll. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 30% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (up two), 6% One Nation (down two), 1% UAP (steady), 11% for all Others (up two) and 5% undecided (steady).
Essential uses respondent preferences. By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would lead by about 52–48 from these primary votes.
Analyst Kevin Bonham’s aggregate of national polls has the Coalition leading by 50.3–49.7 by 2022 preference flows, the worst for Labor this term. Respondent preference polls from Essential and Morgan have been worse for Labor than the 2022 method, and Bonham is adjusting for a likely pro-Coalition shift of One Nation preferences.
