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The Latest Breaking News from Freshwater

Two Victorian polls have One Nation at 23–24%, but differ on which party is in the lead

Two Victorian polls have One Nation at 23–24% with Labor on top on primary votes in one and the Coalition in the other. Labor has a huge lead in New South Wales as the right vote is split under optional preferential voting. A record number of candidates will contest the…

The Conversation

One Nation surges into second place in two polls, but Labor remains well ahead after preferences

Five federal polls have been released in the last week, with three of them having some fieldwork after the Coalition split on January 22. One Nation is in second place on primary votes in the YouGov and DemosAU polls, leading the Coalition by five points in YouGov and three points…

The Conversation

Labor gains in Resolve poll as DemosAU poll has One Nation winning 12 House seats

Labor expanded its national lead in a Resolve poll as a DemosAU MRP poll had One Nation winning 12 House seats. In Victoria, the Coalition has a 51–49 lead in a Resolve poll. As the SA Liberal leader resigned, a new poll gave Labor a 61–39 lead.

The Conversation

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One Nation’s surge continues in Redbridge poll, but Labor dominant

One Nation surges to a new record 18% in a federal Redbridge poll as the Coalition falls to 24%, but Labor dominates with 38%. In Victoria, the final poll of Brad Battin’s Liberal leadership had the Coalition narrowly ahead.

The Conversation

Final counting shows polls understated Labor in 2025 election almost as much as they overstated it in 2019

With almost all primary votes now counted to two-party preferred (as I explained on May 29), Labor has won the national two-party vote by a 55.3–44.7 margin, although this may drop to a 55.2–44.8 margin once the remaining votes from Bradfield come in.

The Conversation

Final polls give Labor a clear lead before the election

With those who haven’t already cast a pre-poll vote ready to hit the polling places tomorrow, a final batch of polls give Labor a firm lead.

The Conversation

Newspoll steady as both leaders’ ratings fall; Labor surging in poll of marginal seats

With less than two weeks to go now until the federal election, the polls continue to favour the government being returned.

The Conversation

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Labor’s poll surge continues in YouGov, but it’s barely ahead in Freshwater

Labor increased its lead again in a YouGov poll, but Freshwater put the party ahead by just 50.3–49.7. This article also covers the final WA upper house results for the March 8 election.

The Conversation

Labor leads in three recent national polls, four weeks from the election

The federal election will be held in four weeks. A national YouGov poll, conducted March 28 to April 3 from a sample of 1,622, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous non-MRP YouGov poll taken March 14–19.

The Conversation

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

Labor’s regaining of polling momentum has continued into the first week of the formal election campaign. A national Newspoll, conducted March 27–29 from a sample of 1,249, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. This is Labor’s first Newspoll lead…

The Conversation

Gains for Labor as they lead in three of last five polls

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted March 13–15 from a sample of 1,051, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead by respondent preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the late February Freshwater poll.

The Conversation

Labor crashes to a 55–45 deficit in Resolve despite interest rate cut

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted February 18–23 from a sample of 1,506, gave the Coalition a 55–45 lead by headline respondent preferences, a three-point gain for the Coalition since January. By 2022 election preference flows, the Coalition led by 52–48, a one-point gain for them.

The Conversation

WA Labor has thumping Newspoll lead a month before election; federal Labor improves

The Western Australian state election will be held on March 8. A Newspoll, conducted January 29 to February 4 from a sample of 1,039, gave Labor a 56–44 lead, from primary votes of 42% Labor, 32% Liberals, 3% Nationals, 12% Greens, 4% One Nation and 7% for all Others.

The Conversation

Coalition still ahead in latest polls, but some promising news for Labor

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted January 17–19 from a sample of 1,063, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since December. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (down one) and 15% for all Others (down one).

The Conversation

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The Conversation

Labor and Albanese end 2024 in worst poll position this term

A national Essential poll , conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,151, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided, unchanged from the late November Essential poll. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 30% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (up two), 6% One Nation (down two), 1% UAP (steady),…

The Conversation

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 15–21 from a sample of 1,515, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down one), 9% One Nation (up two) and 10% for all Others (steady).

AAP

Labor outcry over Libs 'outrageous' spending on polls

In the midst of a by-election the SA government has accused the opposition of squandering taxpayers' money but the Liberals say it was all approved by Treasury.

The Conversation

LNP wins Queensland election, likely with a clear majority

With 45% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Queensland state election, The Poll Bludger’s results have the Liberal National Party (LNP) winning 38 of the 93 seats, Labor 26, Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) three and independents one.

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The Conversation

Kamala Harris maintains narrow lead in key states in US presidential race

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.2, a slight gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led Trump by 49.3–46.0.

The Guardian - UK

Tracey Emin among hundreds opposing changes to Margate ‘brutalist masterpiece’

Managers of building in which Emin owns a flat want to replace windows but opponents say they are a key feature

The Conversation

Harris gains in US polls during Democratic convention; Labor thumped in NT election

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–44.8. In my previous US politics article last Monday, Harris led Trump by 47.1–44.6.

The Conversation

Labor has narrow Newspoll lead but behind in other polls; Labor doomed in Queensland

A national Newspoll, conducted July 15–19 from a sample of 1,258, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up two), 33% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one) and 10% for all Others (down two).

The Conversation

Dutton snatches preferred PM lead in Resolve poll as draft redistributions finished

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted June 11–15 from a sample of 1,607, gave the Coalition 36% of the primary vote (steady since the May post-budget Resolve poll), Labor 28% (down one), the Greens 14% (up two), One Nation 6% (down one), the UAP 1% (down one), independents…

The Conversation

Labor takes a hit in Resolve polls in Queensland and Victoria

The Queensland state election will be held in October. A Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted over four months from February to May from a sample of 947, gave the Liberal National Party 43% of the primary vote (up six since September to December), Labor 26% (down seven), the…

The Conversation

Freshwater national poll holds steady at a 50--50 tie between Labor and the Coalition as Trump set for big win in Iowa caucus

A national Freshwater poll for The Sunday Telegraph had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from a Freshwater poll for The Financial Review in mid-December.

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