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The Latest Breaking News from Freshwater

Two polls have Labor third on primary votes, five months out from the Victorian election

With the Victorian state election in late November, two polls have Labor sinking to third on primary votes, behind One Nation and the Coalition. Labor Premier Jacinta Allan’s net approval is below -35 in both polls.

The Conversation

One Nation gains in polls as budget is poorly received in Newspoll

In three credible post-budget polls, One Nation is up one to three points, with their victory at the May 9 Farrer byelection probably also contributing. Labor took a hit in Freshwater and Resolve, but not Newspoll.

The Conversation

Budget brawl escalates over rival tax cut proposals

The government has conceded its budget is unlikely to win immediate support from voters as Labor and Liberals taking aim at each others' policies.

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Albanese’s ratings jump in federal polls; Liberals easily retain Nepean at Victorian byelection

In both the Redbridge and Freshwater polls, Anthony Albanese’s net favourability has jumped eight points since late March to -9. In Redbridge, the Coalition rebounded from a low of 17% in March to 22%.

The Conversation

One Nation’s rise turns around as Newspoll and Resolve both have Labor well ahead

Has One Nation reached its polling peak? That’s the intriguing question from the latest batch of polls.

The Conversation

Labor’s slide continues in federal polls, as special DemosAU poll has Coalition winning just nine seats

Labor is still ahead, but the latest federal polls suggest a move against them. A DemosAU MRP poll has One Nation winning 52 of the 150 House seats and the Coalition just nine. A Victorian poll has the Coalition gaining a 52–48 lead over Labor.

The Conversation

Two Victorian polls have One Nation at 23–24%, but differ on which party is in the lead

Two Victorian polls have One Nation at 23–24% with Labor on top on primary votes in one and the Coalition in the other. Labor has a huge lead in New South Wales as the right vote is split under optional preferential voting. A record number of candidates will contest the…

The Conversation

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One Nation surges into second place in two polls, but Labor remains well ahead after preferences

Five federal polls have been released in the last week, with three of them having some fieldwork after the Coalition split on January 22. One Nation is in second place on primary votes in the YouGov and DemosAU polls, leading the Coalition by five points in YouGov and three points…

The Conversation

Labor gains in Resolve poll as DemosAU poll has One Nation winning 12 House seats

Labor expanded its national lead in a Resolve poll as a DemosAU MRP poll had One Nation winning 12 House seats. In Victoria, the Coalition has a 51–49 lead in a Resolve poll. As the SA Liberal leader resigned, a new poll gave Labor a 61–39 lead.

The Conversation

One Nation’s surge continues in Redbridge poll, but Labor dominant

One Nation surges to a new record 18% in a federal Redbridge poll as the Coalition falls to 24%, but Labor dominates with 38%. In Victoria, the final poll of Brad Battin’s Liberal leadership had the Coalition narrowly ahead.

The Conversation

Final counting shows polls understated Labor in 2025 election almost as much as they overstated it in 2019

With almost all primary votes now counted to two-party preferred (as I explained on May 29), Labor has won the national two-party vote by a 55.3–44.7 margin, although this may drop to a 55.2–44.8 margin once the remaining votes from Bradfield come in.

The Conversation

Final polls give Labor a clear lead before the election

With those who haven’t already cast a pre-poll vote ready to hit the polling places tomorrow, a final batch of polls give Labor a firm lead.

The Conversation

Newspoll steady as both leaders’ ratings fall; Labor surging in poll of marginal seats

With less than two weeks to go now until the federal election, the polls continue to favour the government being returned.

The Conversation

Labor’s poll surge continues in YouGov, but it’s barely ahead in Freshwater

Labor increased its lead again in a YouGov poll, but Freshwater put the party ahead by just 50.3–49.7. This article also covers the final WA upper house results for the March 8 election.

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Labor leads in three recent national polls, four weeks from the election

The federal election will be held in four weeks. A national YouGov poll, conducted March 28 to April 3 from a sample of 1,622, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous non-MRP YouGov poll taken March 14–19.

The Conversation

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

Labor’s regaining of polling momentum has continued into the first week of the formal election campaign. A national Newspoll, conducted March 27–29 from a sample of 1,249, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. This is Labor’s first Newspoll lead…

The Conversation

Gains for Labor as they lead in three of last five polls

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted March 13–15 from a sample of 1,051, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead by respondent preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the late February Freshwater poll.

The Conversation

Labor crashes to a 55–45 deficit in Resolve despite interest rate cut

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted February 18–23 from a sample of 1,506, gave the Coalition a 55–45 lead by headline respondent preferences, a three-point gain for the Coalition since January. By 2022 election preference flows, the Coalition led by 52–48, a one-point gain for them.

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The Conversation

WA Labor has thumping Newspoll lead a month before election; federal Labor improves

The Western Australian state election will be held on March 8. A Newspoll, conducted January 29 to February 4 from a sample of 1,039, gave Labor a 56–44 lead, from primary votes of 42% Labor, 32% Liberals, 3% Nationals, 12% Greens, 4% One Nation and 7% for all Others.

The Conversation

Coalition still ahead in latest polls, but some promising news for Labor

A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted January 17–19 from a sample of 1,063, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since December. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (down one) and 15% for all Others (down one).

The Conversation

Labor and Albanese end 2024 in worst poll position this term

A national Essential poll , conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,151, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided, unchanged from the late November Essential poll. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 30% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (up two), 6% One Nation (down two), 1% UAP (steady),…

The Conversation

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 15–21 from a sample of 1,515, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down one), 9% One Nation (up two) and 10% for all Others (steady).

AAP

Labor outcry over Libs 'outrageous' spending on polls

In the midst of a by-election the SA government has accused the opposition of squandering taxpayers' money but the Liberals say it was all approved by Treasury.

The Conversation

LNP wins Queensland election, likely with a clear majority

With 45% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Queensland state election, The Poll Bludger’s results have the Liberal National Party (LNP) winning 38 of the 93 seats, Labor 26, Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) three and independents one.

The Conversation

Kamala Harris maintains narrow lead in key states in US presidential race

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.2, a slight gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led Trump by 49.3–46.0.

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