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The Conversation
The Conversation
Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Labor gains lead in post-budget Newspoll; would be one seat short of majority in YouGov MRP poll

Labor’s regaining of polling momentum has continued into the first week of the formal election campaign. A national Newspoll, conducted March 27–29 from a sample of 1,249, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. This is Labor’s first Newspoll lead since July 2024.

Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (down one) and 12% for all Others (up two). By 2022 election preference flows, Labor would have led by about 51.5–48.5.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved three points to -9, with 52% dissatisfied and 43% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval slid four points to -18. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 49–38 (47–38 previously).

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