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The Conversation
The Conversation
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

2 polls have Tasmania headed for another hung parliament, but disagree on which party is ahead

Two Tasmanian state polls imply another hung parliament at the July 19 election under Tasmania’s proportional system. In one of these polls, Labor leads the Liberals, while in the other the Liberals lead.

A Tasmanian snap state election will be held on July 19, just 16 months after the previous election in March 2024. This election is being held owing to a successful early June no-confidence vote in Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff.

Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect its lower house. There are five electorates corresponding to Tasmania’s five federal seats, and each electorate returns seven members, for a total of 35 lower house MPs.

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