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The Latest Breaking News from Oxford Economics

How high could Europe's inflation go if the Iran war continues?

Economists estimate that rising oil and gas prices could significantly lift eurozone inflation. Markets have already begun pricing in the risk of a rate hike in 2026.

Euronews

Why has the Iran war sparked fears of stagflation for the global economy?

Conflict in the Middle East risks knocking growth worldwide and boosting prices, economists warn, amid global market turbulence

The Guardian - AU

Why an Iran war inflation shock could wreck global economic recovery

Central bankers and economists warn prolonged conflict could raise retail prices and rip up growth forecasts

The Guardian - UK

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Iran war: How exposed are European economies?

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent gas prices surging by 60%, putting additional strain on Europe's already-depleted winter inventories and prompting economists to revise their 2026 growth and inflation outlooks.

Euronews

Jerome Powell is facing a ‘puzzlement’ of economic data, with contradictions likely to freeze any immediate action on the base rate

“Such confusion often leads to inertia, and we suspect that there will be no knee-jerk policy reaction to any of the week’s reports,” Oxford Economics’ Bob Schwartz wrote.

Fortune

Illegal ciggies tipped to soon stub out retail sales

One of Australia's biggest retailers has warned nine in 10 cigarettes will be bought illegally by the end of the decade unless the tobacco excise is cut.

AAP

Top analyst warns the economy is figuring out how to grow without creating new jobs, leaving a major vulnerability

The economy will grow because of higher productivity, aided in part by AI, says Michael Pearce of Oxford Economics. But people aren’t core to that story.

Fortune

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Milano-Cortina 2026: What's the economic impact of the Winter Olympics?

The Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are estimated to generate €5.3bn in total economic value, including €2.3bn in tourism spending.

Euronews

Get used to the K-shaped economy. It’s likely here until 2035, thanks to AI’s outsize benefit for the wealthy

“Eventually, it might bring things together, but in the meantime ... it’s unlikely that AI helps at all with the K-shaped economy,” Innes McFee, CEO of Oxford Economics, tells Fortune in an exclusive interview.

Fortune

Complacency risk for economy as tariff wars re-emerge

A deterioration in the job market could spare Australian borrowers interest rate hikes in 2026, an economist says.

AAP

AI Layoffs Branded a 'Corporate Fiction' by Oxford Economics—Workers Pay the Price

AI-driven layoffs have been branded by a recent Oxford Economics study as fiction driven by corporate interests, stating that it may be overstated.

International Business Times UK

AI layoffs are looking more and more like corporate fiction that's masking a darker reality, Oxford Economics suggests

"Firms don't appear to be replacing workers with AI on a significant scale," the firm said. It suspects some are trying to "dress up layoffs" as good news.

Fortune

From the AI bubble to Fed fears: the global economic outlook for 2026

Analysts and investors voice caution about tech valuations and Trump’s influence on the US central bank

The Guardian - UK

We're Still Bullish on Stocks

We're still bullish on stocks for 2026, but now is the time for investors to pull in their horns and dial down risk.

Kiplinger

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Latin Times

Latin America Becomes Key Driver of New Oil Supply as 2026 Surplus Looms, Report Finds

New offshore projects in Brazil and Guyana shift global supply dynamics as output growth outpaces expected demand

Benzinga

Trump's Next Tariff Moves Could Make Or Break The US Economy In 2026

Tariffs aren't exactly top of mind for most Americans during the Christmas holidays, but as 2026 approaches, a few trade decisions from President Donald Trump could end up steering everything from the U.S. economy to your portfolio.

Fortune

The most likely solution to the U.S. debt crisis is severe austerity triggered by a fiscal calamity, former White House economic adviser says

“Eventually, in the unforeseeable future, austerity may be the most likely of the six possible outcomes.”

Fortune

'The kids aren't alright,' warns top economist, as unemployed, pessimistic Gen Z living with parents blow a $12 billion hole in consumption

"Young workers are more vulnerable to economic downturns, and a weak labor market can have a lasting negative impact on wage growth and earning potential," economist Grace Zwemmer writes.

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International Business Times

While Establishment Politicians Squabbled Over TikTok, John McEntee Built a New Model for Influence

According to Oxford Economics, TikTok contributed $24.2 billion to U.S. GDP in 2023, supporting over 224,000 jobs. For small businesses and content creators—constituencies Republicans claim to champion—the platform has become essential infrastructure.

Fortune

It’s getting harder to separate the stock market from the economy. That means the Fed and Congress have more incentive to help Wall Street

A $1 increase in stock wealth leads to a $0.05 marginal propensity to consume, up from less than $0.02 in 2010, according to Oxford Economics.

Benzinga

Consumers Feel Like It's 2008 Again In DC As Shutdown Hits Wallets

A prolonged federal government shutdown is hitting Washington D.C.’s economy hard, with consumer spending now falling at rates not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, raising fears of deeper economic disruptions if the deadlock continues.

Euronews

How long can the Russian economy continue to fund the frontline?

The Russian economy is balancing on the edge of recession, yet the war could go on for years. Its financing appears to have no immediate major obstacles, according to experts.

Benzinga

A Rare Holiday Spending Boom Is Coming—But Only For The Wealthy

This year's holiday season may deliver the strongest sales growth in four years, but it won't be a broad recovery—wealthy households are expected to drive nearly all of the gains.

Fortune

America is ‘flirting with recession’ if tech investment slows, according to new modeling—but bubble risk is still smaller than dotcom era

Oxford Economics warns U.S. growth could stall if tech investment cools, with global GDP also at risk if AI enthusiasm shows signs of waning.

Fortune

What bubble? By this measure, the AI boom still isn’t at dotcom bust levels

Another key difference between now and the earlier boom-bust era is that the Federal Reserve is lowering rates instead of raising them.

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