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The Latest Breaking News from Oxford Economics

Trump’s latest import taxes could set a precedent for a 'broad tariff generator' on anything a president wants to target, expert warns

"This is precisely the open-ended tariff power grab the courts checked with their IEEPA rulings, just with a little more procedural window-dressing."

Fortune

Money talks: As the Iran war continues, Hormuz tolls gain traction

With missiles replacing merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, activity in the world's most critical energy corridor is grinding to a halt—and a controversial proposal to charge for safe passage is gaining traction.

Fortune

Could Warsh Break a 56-Year Fed Rate-Hike Streak?

For nearly six decades, every Federal Reserve chair has delivered a rate hike before cutting interest rates.

Benzinga

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Why this summer's heatwaves could raise your supermarket bill next year

While food inflation has eased across the eurozone, economists say this summer's extreme heat is now a bigger threat to next year's supermarket prices than the recent Iran war, as damaged harvests could outweigh the fading impact of higher oil and fertiliser costs.

Euronews

U.S.-Iran talks are 'eerily similar' to Trump's bumpy China dealings in his first term, says top economist—don't rule out further oil price spikes

"The deep distrust between the US and Iran meant bumps in the road were inevitable and this feels eerily similar to the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China during President Donald Trump’s first term, which had numerous flare-ups followed by de-escalation."

Fortune

The key global economic risks to watch in the second half of 2026

After six months defined by war, an oil shock and a frenzied AI trade, economists say the rest of the year hangs on a chain of interlocking risks, with the fragile peace between the US and Iran as the key factor.

Euronews

British Tourism Stays Strong in 2026

A landmark report published in January 2026 by VisitBritain and VisitEngland, compiled by Oxford Economics, confirmed that tourism is now one of Britain's most valuable economic engines.

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India's startup engine at risk? Rs 91,500 crore, 2.45 lakh jobs under threat from digital rules, says report

A new report warns that stricter digital regulations in India could cost the startup ecosystem Rs 91,500 cr in annual venture capital and lead to 245,000 fewer jobs by 2035. The study highlights that 88% of startups feel operational constraints from current rules, with resources shifting to compliance. Conversely, an…

The Economic Times

Trump hails Iran deal but conflict continues to cast long shadow over global economy

As the price of crude oil falls governments are counting the costs of the war in the Middle East

The Guardian - UK

European defence spending: Poland spends larger share of GDP than US

Defence spending across European NATO is at its highest since the Cold War, with countries closest to Russia spending the most. But the continent is splitting between front-line states racing towards 5% of GDP and a large group doing the bare minimum.

Euronews

Thailand a regional data centre leader

Thailand is emerging as one of the fastest-growing data centre markets in Asia-Pacific, fuelled by surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing and digital services.

Bangkok Post

'I Love the Inflation': Trump Defies Economic Experts as US Consumer Prices Record Dramatic Spike

President Trump expressed enthusiasm for high inflation, linking it to covert oil seizures. His remarks have intensified political tensions and economic concerns during a challenging midterm election year.

International Business Times UK

The 2026 World Cup: Billions promised but will the economic boom arrive?

With the kick-off less than ten days away, the largest World Cup in history is set to inject tens of billions into the hosting economies. Yet, analysts are estimating that the relative impact will be marginal.

Euronews

How Much You Need To Earn To Buy A Home In 49 Major US Cities: First-Time Buyers Are In For A Shock

The challenge of homeownership in the US is that rising wages lag behind soaring property prices. Discover which Midwest cities offer affordable options amid the national crisis.

International Business Times UK

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The Independent UK

The £6bn bond yields drama unfolding behind the headlines

UK 10-year gilts have risen by more than those issued by other advanced economies since the start of the Iran war

Euronews

World Cup travel demand rises, but not all host cities will get the economic win

While the tourism picture points to an increase in activity in the run-up to this summer's tournament, research suggests the broader impact may be far more limited.

Euronews

How AI is forcing central banks to rethink inflation and rates

Central banks are racing to understand how AI is reshaping inflation — and they do not all agree on the answer.

Euronews

Can Hungary's new government fix an economy in crisis?

Investors are optimistic about the new government's expected economic policies, but an energy crisis and a scramble for EU funds could slow its immediate success.

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Euronews

How long can the EU’s oil reserves last?

The 400 million barrels of oil released by the International Energy Agency — of which 92 million barrels were contributed by 20 EU countries — could last about five months, according to analysts. The bloc also relies on storage reserves.

The Independent UK

Trump’s war with Iran could see fuel rationing and global recession within months, experts warn

Prolonged disruption would slow world GDP growth to 1.4 percent in 2026, Oxford Economics warns

AAP

Australia faces 'sharp recession' if US escalates war

As Donald Trump fails to reassure traders about the Strait of Hormuz, analysts warn Australia's economy is hurtling towards a recession the longer it is closed.

Fortune

Bond yields are falling even as oil tops $102, showing that Wall Street fears recession more than inflation

“The risks to economic growth begin to take precedence over the risks to inflation,” Oxford Economics said in a note on Monday.

Fortune

How badly the war in Iran is impacting your finances depends on where you live

Households whose budgets have a higher allocation toward groceries, fuel, and utilities—either because of geography or income—are more exposed to the Iranian conflict.

The Independent UK

Soaring gas prices threaten to wipe out Trump’s tax refund gains

Gas prices are likely to remain elevated for some time, as shipping and production disruptions will take time to recover

Fortune

Economists are loathe to mention recessions, but odds just hit 49% for the next 12 months according to Moody’s top economist

"If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid," Zandi said.

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