A strengthening super El Niño could increase the cost of some UK groceries in 2027, particularly if poor harvests affect several major food-producing regions at the same time. But the scale of any price rises remains uncertain.
In a briefing published on 12 October 2026, Oxford Economics warned that El Niño, combined with the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole, could threaten agricultural production and livelihoods across parts of Africa. Separately, a science roundtable summary published by the UK Government Office for Science identified potential risks to imported food supplies, including rice, coffee and cocoa.
