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Latin Times
Latin Times
World
Azucena Salazar

Peru's El Niño Hits Extraordinary Levels — And Won't Ease Until 2027

ENFEN Peru El Niño GDP NOAA Oxford Economics
Map of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (OSTIA) in the Pacific Ocean showing El Niño region monitoring zones (Niño 1+2, Niño 3, and Niño 3.4). (Credit: Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú SENAMHI / OSTIA (Operational Sea Surface T)

The Briefing

  • Peru's ENFEN commission confirmed on October 16 that Coastal El Niño will hold an extraordinary intensity rating through January 2027, not easing to "strong" until early autumn 2027.
  • Seven key rivers will exceed normal flow levels starting November, with Lima's Rímac and Chillón rivers — which supply water to over 10 million people — at elevated risk from December onward.
  • The regional economic toll could reach 2% of Latin America's GDP, while Oxford Economics puts global losses at up to $9.67 trillion in a severe stress scenario through 2029.
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